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NCAA Weekly Dish - 02/04/06


With the college basketball season in full swing, Matt Fargo takes a look at three big games on tap that you cannot miss this Saturday. While Connecticut/Indiana and Florida/Kentucky are getting the headlines, there are bigger happenings in the smaller conferences that you should be aware of.

Southern Illinois Salukis at Wichita St. Shockers 12:00 PM ET

Both Southern Illinois and Wichita St. are in a four-way jam at the top in the Missouri Valley Conference and every game is crucial at this point. Losing one game can mean a dip down to fourth or fifth place and that is not where any team wants to be come tournament time. Both teams are 9-3 in the conference and are two of five teams currently ranked 50th or better in the RPI.

The Salukis have been road tested this season with missed results. They are 6-4 away from Carbondale but the only decent win on the season is a victory at Murray St. They are 3-2 in MVC road games but the three wins came against teams in the bottom half of the conference while the two losses came against Northern Iowa and Missouri St., who are both tied atop the standings.

Wichita St. had a six-game winning streak snapped at Creighton two games back but responded with a home win against Evansville to push its home mark to 11-1 on the season. The only home loss came against Northern Iowa as the Shockers were outshot at the free throw line 23-8. They are outscoring opponents by 11.7 ppg while outshooting foes by 6.7 percent on their home floor.

The Salukis had a 33-game home winning streak snapped on Wednesday which was the longest in the country. That loss can be attributed to looking ahead as Southern Illinois just didn’t show up. Wichita St. will be looking to avenge a nine-point loss at Southern Illinois back in January. The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings but the Salukis have won seven of the last eight including two of the last three on the road.

Akron Zips at Kent St. Golden Flashes 2:00 PM ET

This matchup for first place is not at all surprising since both were preseason picks at or near the top of the MAC East. Both teams have rolled through the early conference schedule with identical 9-1 records and the winner will hold a big edge coming down the stretch. Neither team has played a difficult schedule while Akron is the only MAC team with an RPI in the top 100.

Akron's 16-4 record is its best start in the Division I era while its 9-1 record in league play is its best ever MAC start. They have won three straight games and 11 of their last 12, losing their last two games by a combined 10 points. Akron’s three road losses were certainly nothing to be ashamed of as the Zips fell to Cal, Louisville and Ohio all of which have a shot at the NCAA Tournament.

Kent St. suffered a rare home loss to Bowling Green three games ago which snapped a seven-game winning streak but the Golden Flashes have responded with consecutive wins since. The defense has allowed only 59.6 ppg over their last five games but has allowed 66.4 ppg in their last five home games. The offense is averaging 77.8 ppg at home and they have surpassed 70 points in seven of their last eight games.

This is a big rivalry and not surprisingly the last three games have been decided by five points or less. The Golden Flashes have won six of the last eight overall matchups, and six of the last seven at the M.A.C. Center. Both teams still have six remaining conference games after this one before a season ending showdown in Akron that could decide the champion of the East.

NC-Wilmington Seahawks at George Mason Patriots 7:00 PM ET

Yet another game in this huge rivalry has conference implications as the winner takes over sole possession of first place in the Colonial Athletic Association. Both teams are playing very well and both are coming off average wins last time out, most likely due to peeking ahead to this one. The home team has won four straight and seven of the last eight in this series with both splitting neutral tournaments wins as well.

NC-Wilmington has played four of its last five games at home with the only road game being at winless James Madison. This will be the biggest road test in seven games since losing an overtime game at Hofstra back on January 14th. Four of the Seahawks last five road losses have been by five points or less so even though they are 6-5 away from home, they have been competitive for the most part.

The Patriots were in a very similar position last week when they hosted Old Dominion and won that one by 19 points. The Monarchs have been struggling so this one should not be as easy. The Patriots are 8-1 at home losing only to Creighton in their home opener and they have won by 17.3 ppg in their eight games since. Overall, George Mason has won three straight, 9 of 10 and 15 of 18.

The Seahawks have won three straight meetings in this series which happened to follow a three-game streak by George Mason prior to that. That includes a win in Wilmington exactly two weeks ago so if there is any extra motivation for the Patriots, that is it. They likely aren’t going to need any extra pushes as a loss would not only put them a game back but they would essentially be two back based on the series sweep.

Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm.




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