The Fall Of The House Of Hurricane
Pity Larry Coker. At this point, there's really nothing he can do. Miami (FL) is out of the top-25 for the first time in a bazillion years (okay, since 1999). The 'Canes lost a lackluster home game against a not-very-good Florida State team, then went on the road two weeks ago and got their asses flossed by a very good Louisville team that was nevertheless missing its starting QB and star RB, 51-10. Miami could go undefeated for the rest of the season (p.s.: they won't), and Coker's job would still be in peril. (Side note: I love how every college football analyst sitting in the studio begins his discussion of a beleaguered college coach by talking about how all the "Internet chat rooms" are calling for so-and-so's ouster. From someone who's pretty 'Net savvy, let me just say that if any college administrator anywhere has ever listened to anything anyone has ever said in an "Internet chat room" (I assume these knuckleheads mean "Internet message board," but let's leave that one alone), he or she should immediately be forced to resign his post, or accept Bob Knight as his or her head basketball coach, whichever one he or she chooses.) Yes, the ACC is down. The 'Canes and 'Noles are dramatically underpowered offensively. Virginia Tech hasn't played anyone who can exploit their miscellaneous defections and/or suspensions. Boston College and Wake Forest are mirages. Georgia Tech is about as consistent as Dave Chappelle. Heck, you could make the argument that there are as many as three Big East teams who would go undefeated in ACC play. And yet Miami will continue to be overvalued at the betting window. So far in '06, the Hurricanes have struggled offensively as at no time in their recent history. They rank 52nd in passing offense and 61st in rushing offense. Their offensive line lost all but one starter from last season. Their starting rusher, Charlie Jones, is averaging 41.3 yards per game, and 3.9 yards per carry, and has been benched this week in favor of freshman Javarris James (Edgerrin's first cousin). Overall, in their two games against Division I opponents (discounting the 51-10 win over Florida A&M), the offense has accounted for 17 points and 476 total yards combined. The 'Canes rush defense is still as solid as ever: the team is eighth in the nation in rush yards allowed per game, at just 59.3 (which figures to a 2.3 yards per carry); however, one reason the rushing numbers are so good is that the pass defense is so bad: without Brian Brohm for most of the Louisville game, the Cardinals nevertheless racked up 294 passing yards before calling off the dogs late. Into this breach (and the Orange Bowl) comes the University of Houston, with their sixth-rated passing offense (312 yards per game). Senior QB David Kolb is third in the nation in passing, and has a ridiculous QB rating of 171.7. The Cougars are also averaging 175 yards per game on the ground, which works out to five yards a carry. Granted, this is a mighty big step up in competition for Houston, who carry a 4-0 record into the Miami Saturday evening: they've beaten Rice, Tulane, Grambling and Oklahoma State. Still, the OSU win was the first for Houston against a Big 12 school since 1988, and while the Cowboys ran relatively wild on the Cougars (165 yards rushing), Kolb kept control of the ball enough to register a surprising 34-25 win (as a 2.5-point underdog). Add to these statistics the fact that Miami is consistently one of the most overvalued teams in the nation by bettors. They're 8-20 against the spread in their last 28 home games. They're also 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games in which they've been favored by 10.5 points or more, 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last four entering as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games, 0-3 ATS in their last three night games, and 0-4 ATS in their last four against Conference USA teams. The name is drawing the money, not the football. Houston, to the contrary, is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games (though they are 0-3 ATS in their last three roadies). Do I think Houston's going to take Miami behind the woodshed, Louisville-style? No. The athletes who play at the U. are simply of a better caliber, and Miami should eventually wear down Houston. But I think this is going to be a very high-scoring game, and I think that Houston's going to be in it much longer than many seem to believe. While I'm not sure if Houston can stop Miami QB Kyle Wright or WR Darnell Jenkins, the Cougars will attack through the air as well, and that's exactly where Miami is vulnerable. Miami will win the game, but I suspect it will be close, so I'm taking Houston (+17) at Miami. Poor Larry. Last Week: An easy cover, as Wake Forest, a three-point underdog, dominated at Mississippi, and won the game outright, 27-3. After a pretty blasé back-door cover two weeks ago, this one made for a nice, easy Saturday. For the year, then, I'm at 3-1 against the spread. Christopher Harris is a featured writer for the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com |
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