Pre-Season Diamonds
Preseason pro football is sort of like the engagement period that precedes marriage. You haven't made a final commitment yet, but you get a taste of what's in store. I hadn't laid eyes on Tony Diamond and his wife, Shirley Kessler, in 16 years when I ran into them recently at a pool party hosted by Las Vegas handicapper Ted Sevransky and his fiance Kara. Ironically, the last time I saw Tony and Shirley was at their wedding reception at the Flamingo Hotel and Casino. Back then, Diamond was a major player on the local sports gambling scene, making the radio rounds, hosting his own show and co-hosting the Saturday night Stardust Line on which John Kelly was a regular guest. But shitaki happens. Shirley had a serious bout with cancer and bills piled up as the couple sought treatment from Southern California medical experts. They had to sell their spacious home and move to smaller quarters. Suddenly, Diamond found himself on the fringes of the industry, more on the outside looking in than the inside looking out. Today, Shirley is the picture of health, working a proverbial 9 to 5 job, and Tony is primed for a comeback. I asked Tony how he approached the NFL exhibition season. He replied he doesn't do a lot with it, but he takes it seriously, releasing two or three plays a week, because his clients are risking their hard-earned dollars on his selections. Diamond believes the biggest edge sports handicappers can get in the preseason is gained through reading. "The more you read, the more you can get into heads of the coaches, their game plans, who's going to play and for how long," he said. "Quarterback and starters' rotation is very important. "What game a coach is looking at to make preseason cuts is important because it means he will be giving personnel on the bubble more playing time. "The only way to get this information is by reading, "I spend five to six hours per day reading team sites, press conference reviews, coaches' quotes and articles in teams' hometown newspapers." Diamond believes a knowledge of coaching history is important because some head men don't give a hoot about winning, while others subscribe to the philosophy that winning instills confidence. The Las Vegas handicapper listed coaches' exhibition records in his latest Diamond Line, an online newsletter, while noting that having so many first-times bosses in the picture this year makes it an unknown factor. Tony points out that teams experiencing slow season ticket sales due to several bad years owners sometimes instruct coaches to try to win preseason games in order to bolster them. "Again, you get this kind of information by reading between the lines," he said. "I try to find out if a coach is going to focus on offense or defense in a particular game. "By reading you can pick up things like 'I was disappointed in our defense last week,' which might be a good indication he will have his starters on defense in for a longer period of time than normal. "This could indicate a play on totals; maybe playing the UNDER would be a good bet in this scenario, or vice versa if he is emphasizing offense." Diamond also looks for teams with an excessive number of free agents in camp. "These free agents are veterans and not prone to make rookie mistakes that could cost a ballgame," he said "However, they need extra playing time so they can get accustomed to new offensive and defensive schemes. "Coaches will have a tendency to give them more playing time and often you will find them matched against rookies in the second half of a preseason game." Diamond adds that trends usually stand up in the preseason. "One example is a team that has a 10-2 record against the spread in games where they have have lost the previous game by 10 points or more," he said. "No coach wants to go winless in the preseason, so looking at teams in the final week of preseason that have not won a game usually is a good bet. "A lot of these scenarios seem to hold up year after year. "These are the primary things I look for, along with checking the injury report. "If a team has seven or eight starters hurt, it won't take a chance of playing them in a meaningless game, so they may use that game to look at rookies and third-team players trying to make the team. "Last but not least, you hope the ball always bounces in your direction."
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