College Football Week #3: Husker Do?
Ohio State is a freight train. Notre Dame is a freight train. These schools, separated by a scant 300 miles, are on a collision course, with only a few potential spots of derailment. For Ohio State, both Penn State and Iowa are suddenly looking like easier games, so the primary challenge should be Michigan, on November 18. For Notre Dame, it's pretty much this week against that same Wolverine team, and then a little tilt down SoCal way on November 25. We'll get to that one in a moment. For schools like Auburn, LSU, West Virginia and, yes, Southern Cal, life has become a BCS party-pooper...not only do these schools have to win all their games, but they have to hope that OSU and Notre Dame drop one, or else they'll be excluded from the national championship picture. With one notable exception. USC gets Notre Dame. Both teams could be undefeated on the 25th of November, and if they are, it'll be this season's Game of the Century (now that OSU has gone to Austin and whupped the 'Horns in last weekend's Game of the Century). The Trojans are kind of a forgotten factor here; they lost an ungodly amount of talent, but recruited approximately 7,000 running backs to replace Reggie Bush, and have a quarterback, John David Booty, who looked nothing short of sublime dismantling Arkansas in a hostile environment a couple weeks back. In fact, you've got to believe that for USC, the early-season polls are something of a slap in the face. After all, these is still the same school that's won 34 of its last 35 games, yes? And they're still coached by a whooping, silly-looking former NFL headman who couldn't get a professional player to tie his shoes, but can somehow make college kids run through bricks for him, right? And the USC talent pipeline (if guys like Emmanuel Moody, C.J. Gable and Allen Bradford are any indication) is still brimming, true? My point here is that Southern Cal is (in the words of Our Fair President) being misunderestimated in '06, and it continues this weekend, as the Trojans host Nebraska. I grant you, USC does seem to be making its bones lately beating formerly-great programs that have fallen on squishy times. Conquering Arkansas in Fayetville would've looked sexier in 1978, but there's nothing Pete Carroll can do about that. And the Pac-10 is littered with programs that aren't as good as they once were (et tu, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Arizona?). And the same goes for the Cornhuskers, who can't decide on an identity, who fire relatively successful coaches, and who work wonders against the Nicholls States of the world, but stumble all too frequently against the Kansases, Kansas States and Missouris. But I just don't see Saturday night's game being close. Zac Taylor went a combined 41-for-56 for seven TDs and one INT against Louisiana Tech and Nicholls State, and he'd better enjoy it, because Nebraska's modified West Coast offense hasn't seen anything like the USC pass rush in several years (well, except maybe against Oklahoma, and that hasn't worked out so well for Nebraska). DE Lawrence Jackson, who led USC with 10 sacks in '05, is the focal point of the Trojan defense, and DB Josh Pinkard helmed what looks like a better-than-expected secondary at Arkansas. More importantly, the 'Huskers will be without their offensive center, Kurt Mann, who missed last weekend with a viral infection, and won't be well enough to play this week, either. Southern Cal is going to bring the house against Taylor, and while I do like Nebraska's wideouts, I worry that Taylor won't have enough time to make his progression of reads that makes a West Coast offense tick. Furthermore, I still love the Trojans' offense. Sure, they've lost, um, like, everyone, but remember that Carroll has recruited three consecutive classes that have been rated #1 by Rivals.com. Just because you don't know the talent's name yet, doesn't mean it's not there. I mean, if Taylor's allowed to get praise for eating up creampuffs, doesn't Booty get some love for going 24-for-35 for 261 yards, three TDs and no INTs against an actual, real-life SEC team? And USC carried the ball 42 times for 192 yards in that same opener. Given that USC is 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater, 32-14 ATS in their last 48 as a favorite overall and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games, and given that Nebraska tends to become quickly overvalued after they beat up on easy teams at the beginning of the season (they're 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following contests in which they won by 20 or more points), I see Southern Cal running it up big on Nebraska. I'm taking the Trojans (-17.5) over Nebraska. And then people in Southern California can start talking about Notre Dame. Last Week: Betting against North Carolina feels almost unfair. Virginia Tech was all over the Heels early and often, allowing an early field goal and then reeling off 35 straight points. Easy money, taking Tech and giving the 11.5. For the season, that evens my record at 1-1 against the spread. Christopher Harris is a featured writer for the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.com |
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