AMD at the Glen: Revenge Of The Roadies
For you, a roadie is an unshaven man in a denim vest whose cigarette makes an orange pinpoint on a dusky stage. As you see his silhouette and mistake him for the actual band, he picks up a guitar to tune it, and indulges his quasi-musician's jones by playing the first few bars of Stairway To Heaven. After the show, he taps the hottest babes in the front row for a little backstage visit, always making sure to grab far more ladies than the band members themselves can realistically handle, with the hope of some sloppy seconds for himself. For me, a roadie takes place at Watkins Glen this weekend. (Or at Infineon in June.) That's right, for the second time this year, the Smokeless Set heads for a winding road course, this time in upstate New York. For we the bettors, that's good news, because the field of possible winners gets shrunken by a factor of three or four. Most Nextel Cup drivers hate coming to the Glen, because, well, it's hard. All those turns (both left- and right-hand), hitting the apex, staying off the apron and out of the dirt, and getting only two pit stops to adjust the car...it's downright un-NASCAR-ian. Tony Stewart has won the last two events at the Glen, and is a definite contender once again this weekend, primarily because you can put Smoke behind the wheel of a milk truck and force him to drive on a mayonnaise track, and he'll still be the fastest guy. Kid can drive anything. Jeff Gordon has a career four wins at the Glen, and easily won the roadie at Infineon earlier this season. Robby Gordon has struggled to get good finishes since leaving RCR to start his own team two years ago, but he always has a good piece (before its engine craps out), and he's won two Nextel Cup road events. Road-course ringers Boris Said and Ron Fellows drive on tracks like this for a living, and can definitely threaten. Dale Earnhardt Jr. isn't much good at Infineon, but he's been quite good at the Glen over the past few years (10th, 5th and 3rd in his last three here). And, let's see, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick and Mark Martin can be threats to at least run near the front. And that's about it. I may have missed a driver or two, but pretty much everyone else will simply be hanging on for dear life, trying to gain as many points as possible, and begging and pleading to get to Michigan next weekend. In my world, roadies are for specialists, which means we should have a decent chance to pick a winner. Let's see who represents the best bets on this week's board. Last Week: Ugh. Indy didn't go well. Jeff Gordon had a great car and looked like he'd be ready to contend, but he broke a sway-bar on his front left, went three laps down, and never really recovered. Kurt Busch wrecked his primary car in Saturday's final practice, and simply didn't have a good enough backup car to contend. And Kasey Kahne started strong but faded worse than Joe Lieberman. Alas, alas, it kicked my ass, so the week was a 1.5-unit loser. For the season I'm still strongly positive, however, at a profit of 14.5 units Take Tony Stewart (+360), 1/6th unit. I know, I know, it's boring to take the chalk, but Stewart has won the last two Nextel Cup events here and three of the last four, and he needs a better points day to get closer to securing his spot in the Chase for the Championship (there are just five events left before the Chase cutoff). Smoke had a car to threaten Jeff Gordon at Infineon back in June, but he had late mechanical problems and dove backwards, finishing 28th. There's every reason to expect that he and Gordon will be strong and duke it out for the win this weekend. Take Jeff Gordon (+400), 1/6th unit. I know, I know, etc. Can you be guaranteed that Gordon The Superior and Smoke Stewart will both be there at the end to duke it out for the trophy? No, probably not; it seems as though one of them has a problem each time we hit a roadie. (Not that I'm advocating hitting roadies; these guys have to make a living, too.) But can you be guaranteed that one of these two guys will be near the front by race's end? Almost definitely. In fact, when one of these guys tanks, it's almost the other one who directly benefits. Not glamorous, not exciting, but I'll take a bigger chance with my third pick. Take Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+3500), 1/6th unit. Normally, I'd take Robby Gordon (+500) for my third road-course pick, and let's face it: the fact that I'm not taking Gordon The Lesser probably means he'll finally put it all together and win a friggin' race. But I've tired of watching the independent Robby go hog-wild for a road event's first half, only to make a dumb mistake or have something break on his car late. It may simply be that this Gordon's team needs to get a few dozen more races under its belt before it's ready to win a race. If that's true, I'm going to try a big-time flier on Junior, who impressed the world of cool last Thursday night by appearing on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. As I mentioned above, Junior has three top-10 finishes in his last three starts at the Glen, and it's also worth noting that his former DEI teammate, Steve Park, actually won a race at the Glen back in 2000. It's worth watching road-course ringers Boris Said (+1000) and Ron Fellows (+800), both of whom I'm using this weekend in my fantasy racing games. But Junior could be good this weekend, and if he hits, we'll be rolling in it. Note: Please check back Saturday night or Sunday morning for my favorite head-to-head pick for this race; I'll post it when the online books post their matchups and odds. Christopher Harris is a featured writer for the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com |
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