Baseball Betting Odds: Break Even Percentages
The probability necessary to win at a given spread is not always something the novice gambler is aware of. This is important because novice gamblers get tempted to bet on the -200 favorite because he/she knows it will likely win the game. What they don't know is that if the given -200 favorite does not have a 66.6% or better chance of winning, it is a losing proposition over the long haul. How To Calculate Baseball Betting Odds For Favorites I define a favorite as a team with a negative spread like -105, -150, etc. Take the absolute value of the spread and divide by itself plus 100. For example, for an -150 team, take 150/250 = 60%. To pull even, our -150 favorite must win 60% of the time. How To Calculate Baseball Underdogs Betting Odds Take 100 and divide by 100 plus the spread. For example, a +150 team, take 100/250 = 40%. To pull even, our +150 dog must win 40% of the time. List of Break Even Percentages -200: 66.7% -180: 64.3% -160: 61.5% -140: 58.3% -120: 54.5% +100: 50.0% +120: 45.4% +140: 41.7% +160: 38.5% +180: 35.7% +200: 33.3% If you find yourself betting on a favorite, check the break even percentage to ensure that the bet is a profitable one. If you are looking to bet on baseball over the long haul, keeping an eye on the break even percentage is important. Being able to predict a team's probability of winning is equally as important when you want to win betting baseball.
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