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Online Football Betting Secrets: Knowing When NOT To Bet


Sports Betting on the NFL and college football is a national pastime. Every week millions of dollars are bet on the home town favorites with local bookies. People bet even more money with online sports book agencies. Even the major news services publish all the betting stats.

If you're going to bet money on games, you might as well be as informed as possible!

There are even many sports betting sites that provide up-to-the-minute information on your favorite teams and this weeks games. Football Betting can be very profitable if you know the secrets the "smart money" gamblers use to consistently make money.

One of the biggest secrets that smart money gamblers use is knowing when NOT to bet. Here's a perfect example. I analyzed the West Virginia vs. Louisville game, and concluded that West Virginia had the edge in the game. However, I also realized that there were a lot of random and unpredictable factors, and recommended to my clients that they do not bet on this game. Here is my analysis I released before the game:

West Virginia vs. Louisville

This game has all the signs of being one of the best games of the year, with both teams coming into the game 7-0. It's #3 ranked West Virginia vs. #5 ranked Louisville, both with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year's game was a classic, with West Virginia coming back from being down big in the 4th quarter to winning in overtime.

So what's the game look like this year?

If this game were being played at a neutral field, West Virginia would probably be a 4-6 point favorite. Since the game is in Louisville, WVU is a 1-point underdog. Let's see if this makes sense...

West Virginia is on an unprecedented roll. They haven't lost since Oct. 1, 2005, going 14-0 since they lost to Virginia Tech. In the last two seasons they're 13-5 ATS as well. They're also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 ROAD games.

These are some very impressive stats that tilt the scales in favor of WVU for tonight's game. Plus, the added bonus is that WVU is GETTING +1 point. This may not seem like much, but in a close match-up like this, that extra point could make the difference between a push and a loss.

But what about Louisville?

Louisville's stats are almost as good as WVU's -except when it comes to Louisville covering the point spread. In their last 10 games, Louisville is only 4-6 ATS. That said, Louisville is still 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.

And if you're leaning towards WVU, here's a scary stat... Louisville hasn't lost at home since December 18, 2003! During this current run Louisville is averaging 49.4 points per game at home, while averaging only giving up 15.7 points per game at home. In case you didn't do the math, that means since their last home loss they've averaged beating their opponents by about 34 points per game.

What's more impressive, the average line in these games has only been 21 points. That means Louisville has beaten the spread, on average, by 13 points per game at home since 2003.

Wow... how can you go against that?

Here's how...

Most of those stats were built up during the 2005 season. This season, 2006, Louisville has been closer to good than great. They've had recent games in which they've only scored 28, 23, 24 points. And these games weren't against Ohio St. or Michigan. They were against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St.

The bottom line is that this is still a close game to call. But what I look for is West Virginia's defense to carry the day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St. can all hold Louisville under 30 points, then there's no reason to think WVU can't hold them to the low to mid 20's. My honest recommendation is to lay off this game and not bet at all. There are better games this weekend with more clear-cut advantages.

The final score of this game was Louisville 44, West Virginia 34. Lousiville won because West Virginia had 6 fumbles and allowed Lousiville to return a punt for a TD. The bottom line was that West Virginia's edge wasn't so big that they could still win after making so many mistakes. By not betting on this game, people serious about Football Betting saved money they can put to better use on upcoming games.

David James is one of the world's foremost Football Betting experts. Not only does James have an uncanny knack for knowing who to bet on, but he also is one of the best at providing in depth explanations and statistics showing exactly why each pick meets his criteria. http://www.davidjamessports.com




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"I used to subscribe to a £300 monthly tipping service, now I got my own picks with even better ROI at bargaining price. Hope this horse racing system goes well! Good luck"
S. Lewis, Sheffield-UK



"I bought yesterday your Golden Star horse racing system and let me tell you, I'm blown away. The concept is great! So much, that I'm sitting now and wondering why I punish myself beside computer all day. OK, thanks again - I'm in seventh heaven."
D. Gentle, Peterborough - UK



"Excellent betting system! If I were you, I would sell this at much higher price. Good luck with your business"
M. Cornick, Martins Heron - UK



"Briliant horse racing system that makes me foresee the race. Couldn't wait to put real money"
S. Reid, Nottingham - UK



"I just wanted to let you know that I have been using your system for a couple of months now and the results have been exactly as you predicted. I would also like to thank you for your excellent service since I purchased the system. You have answered all of my queries promptly and with patience. Please let me know if you ever create another system as I will want to be first in the queue"
Mark Johnson, Markfield - UK



"Congratulations once again on a 100% week. I could write for hours about how impressed I am at this horse racing system, but I don't need to because you know the effort you put on it ;-)"
B. More, Worcester - UK



"Always busy at my main job and didn't like to bet again but I was so lucky decided to buy this superb horse racing system. Nothing can deny the profitability of it. Money just keeps coming into my Betfair account. I'm asking my 9th years old son to do it for me! Such a simple and efficient method"
M. Williams, Arbroath - UK



"Having purchased this horse racing system and contacted the the system provider on a few occasions to confirm I have the correct selection I have found him very helpful and sincere and I am sure I am now on my way to a TAX free 2nd income ..."
J. Ritchie, Edinburgh - UK



"I'd let you know that either I've been incredibly lucky or your system is far too good to be on the market! I can't keep sneaking off to my computer every day. Sorry to be cheeky, but I'm on a roll now, my bank has doubled now and I have every confidence to double my stake WOW! Your system is a genuine one based on sound thinking and it works, anyone who can't make money from it just shouldn't be gambling!"
Steven Trindall, Doncaster - UK



"After purchasing many systems that you see online I knew that there would have to be one out there that actually worked. Needless to say I finally found this system that produces winner after winner and if you are a normal punter like myself and you want to start getting your money back of the bookie then I highly recommend that you purchase this horse racing system. You won't be disappointed"
Brian Lawless - Ireland



"Paper test 6 days, only 1 slightly losing day, the other 5 are winning days! Great horse racing system!Thanks for sharing"
T. OBrien, Warminster-UK



"What a system! Very well researched method with sensible principles!"
T. May, East Lothian-UK



"I bought your system about a month and a half ago from you and this message is just to say thank you for a great system. Like anything in life the system as it's up's and down's but never losses it's 60%+ strike rate. I have bought a lot of so called 80%+ strike rate systems before but yours is the only system that works for me."
Steven Trindall, Doncaster - UK



"No broken promises and no unrealistic claims. You get exactly what it says. Great horse racing system"
T. Charlton, Nantwich - UK



"Why didn't I think of this method before? I've never noticed such invaluable info. You have an amazing approach indeed. Highly recommended. Well done"
R. Mattingley, Wokingham - UK



"I only recently purchased and started using the Golden Star System, I have to say the profits and service have been first class, emails are answered promptly and I couldn't ask for more!"
Michael White, Ipswich - UK