Sunday NFL Gridbits - Week 9
Matt Fargo takes a brief glance at each game this Sunday and offers some thoughts and trends. CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE 1 p.m. This is Cincinnati’s last game before its bye week. The Bengals sit atop the AFC North thanks to an easy schedule where their six wins have come against teams now a combined 12-31. They host the Colts in two weeks. Trendsetter: CINCINNATI is 6-0 Over after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Ravens come in off a Monday loss by a single point. This is the second of four divisional games in a five game stretch, all against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The offense scored the most points this season against the Steelers on Monday. Trendsetter: BALTIMORE is 9-1 Over in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. TENNESSEE AT CLEVELAND 1 p.m. Tennessee has dropped three straight games and the defense has allowed 31 or more points in five of its eight games. The Titans have a bye next week and then get to play four of their next five games at home. Trendsetter: TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland has also dropped three straight games and allowed the Texans their first win of the season last Sunday. The offense has scored 16 or less points in five of its seven games while the defense has allowed 19 or less in five straight games. Trendsetter: CLEVELAND is 10-2 Under in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE 1 p.m. Houston finally got into the win column last Sunday but it might be the only one for a while as its next three games are against teams with a winning record. The Texans defense tied a season low by allowing just 16 points against the Browns. Trendsetter: HOUSTON is 12-2 ATS after having lost 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. Jacksonville allowed more than 20 points for the first time last week in St. Louis and it was its first loss of the season where the offense scored in the 20’s. The Jaguars host the Ravens next week before heading out on a three game road trip. Trendsetter: JACKSONVILLE is 13-2 Under after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY 1 p.m. The Raiders won for the first time on the road last week at Tennessee and have now won three of their last four games to move a game under .500. This is the second game of a five-in-seven game road stretch after playing three straight games at home. Trendsetter: OAKLAND is 4-16 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. The Chiefs are off two straight road games and follow this game up with two more on the road before finishing the season with four of six at home. The loss at San Diego snapped a two-game winning streak and knocked them 1.5 games behind Denver. Trendsetter: KANSAS CITY is 19-8 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992. ATLANTA AT MIAMI 1 p.m. Atlanta is off a bye week which was good for rest but killed momentum from a 4-1 winning run. The Falcons are in a three-way tie in the NFC South with two straight home games following this one including a game with Tampa Bay. Trendsetter: ATLANTA is 2-11 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. The Dolphins won for the first time on the road last Sunday at New Orleans and are now just a game behind the Patriots in the AFC East. Miami hosts New England next Sunday before heading out for two straight non-division road games. Trendsetter: MIAMI is 10-1 Over after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. DETROIT AT MINNESOTA 1 p.m. The Lions suffered a tough home loss in overtime last week against the Bears who took over first place in the NFC North. Detroit has allowed 21 points or less in five straight games but the offense has scored 20 or less in four of those contests. Trendsetter: DETROIT is 2-13 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. The Vikings season got worse when Dante Culpepper went down for the rest of the season with a knee injury. The Vikings two wins have been against teams a combined 3-12 but a win against Detroit could get them to within a game of 1st place. Trendsetter: MINNESOTA is 18-5 ATS as a home underdog since 1992. CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY 1 p.m. The Panthers have won four straight games and both of their losses have been by just three points each. Carolina has played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far but it gets more difficult with six of its last nine games against teams with a winning record. Trendsetter: CAROLINA is 8-1 Over in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Tampa Bay was either caught looking ahead or it just isn’t that good of a team following its loss at San Francisco. Three of its next four games are at home before a brutal three game road trip starting in December. The defense is still ranked 1st in the NFL. Trendsetter: TAMPA BAY is 13-2 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992. SAN DIEGO AT NEW YORK JETS 1 p.m. San Diego will be looking for revenge on the Jets from last season’s overtime playoff loss. The Chargers have won four of their last six games and all four of their losses on the season have been by four points or less. They have a bye next week. Trendsetter: SAN DIEGO is 10-1 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. The Jets haven’t played at home since October 9th in a win over Tampa Bay. The offense is reeling, having scored 17 or less points in six of their seven games this season. New York is 4-0 coming off a bye week under Herm Edwards. Trendsetter: NY JETS are 8-1 Under after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. CHICAGO AT NEW ORLEANS 4:05 p.m. The Bears have won three straight games and are now in first place alone in the NFC North. The win over Detroit last Sunday was their first on the road this season and it was the first game that the offense scored more than 10 points away from home. Trendsetter: CHICAGO is 14-2 Under in road games against teams who give up 24 or more ppg since 1992. New Orleans has dropped four straight games and six of its last seven. The defense allowed fewer than 28 points for the first time in four games and the Saints catch a break with the offensively challenged Bears coming in. New Orleans has a bye next week. Trendsetter: NEW ORLEANS is 10-23 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. SEATTLE AT ARIZONA 4:05 p.m. Seattle is coming off a bye week after having won three straight games to take a 1.5 game lead in the NFC West. The Seahawks alternate home and road games for the rest of the season and six of their nine remaining games are against teams under .500. Trendsetter: SEATTLE is 8-0 Over when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals trail the Seahawks by three games and a loss here likely ends any chance of a division title. Arizona is 1-2 at home with both losses coming by five points or less and both coming down to the final minute. Three of their next four are on the road. Trendsetter: ARIZONA is 8-1 Over revenging a road loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons. NEW YORK GIANTS AT SAN FRANCISCO 4:05 p.m. New York took the NFC East lead with a thrashing of the Redskins last week. This is a sandwich game following two home games with two more home games on deck. Tampa Bay was caught sleeping last week and the Giants must avoid the letdown. Trendsetter: NY GIANTS are 0-9 ATS versus poor offensive teams - averaging
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