Does Your Forex Strategy Include The Fibonacci Two-Step?
Fibonacci can be a very valuable addition to the tools in your Forex strategy, even if you are a reasonably new trader. Experiment with the guidelines below and learn to do the Fibonacci two-step: Fibonacci levels indicate more often than not how far price is going to go before it stalls and pulls back. It also provides a number of levels where price can pull back or retrace before moving on in the direction of the trend. The 4 most common retracement levels are (figures rounded off) 1. 38%, 2. 50%, 3. 62%, and 4. 79%. The two most common extension levels are 1.27% and 1.62%. Using the Fibonacci tool that comes with most charting packages, simply drag the tool from the most recent swing high/low to the previous swing/high or low and take special note of the 50% retracement level. In a nutshell, the Fibonacci Two-Step means you set an entry order to be pulled in if and when price touches the Fib50% retracement level, and you set your target at the Fib1.27% extension level. However, for these trades to be high probability with minimal risk a couple quick calculations are necessary. What is your stop value? 25-30 pips? If it’s more can your equity cover it if you lose the trade? For many traders 25-30 pips is a reasonable stop. So before entering the trade, measure the distance between the Fib50% retracement level, your possible entry point, and the Fib79% retracement or even the 100% level. If it is more than 25-30 pips, pass on the trade. The risk is too great. If price pulls back further than the Fib50% level even all the way back to the last swing high/low, you will be in trouble. However, if the Fib79% or 100% level are within 25-30 pips of your entry at Fib50%, you have a possible trade. Now calculate how many pips from Fib50% to the extension at Fib127% - this will be your profit ratio. Supposing your stop is set at 25 pips, perhaps somewhere between the Fib79% retracement level and the swing point, and your target at the Fib127% extension is 36 pips, that’s a good risk/reward ratio! You are risking 25 pips to get 36. It is often advisable to set your target 3 or 4 pips above the Fib127% level as sometimes price doesn’t quite make it before it pulls back. Use this strategy in line with your other indicators and trade in the direction of the trend for minimal risk. Why is this strategy so successful? Because it’s not too ambitious. Price will often pull back to the Fib50% level and no further. It will often go to the Fib127 and no further. So using these two levels puts one on middle ground with a higher chance of getting taken into the trade with the target successfully met. So if you are looking to improve your Forex strategy, remember the Fibonacci Two-Step – In at Fib50 – Out at Fib127 – and dance all the way to the bank.
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