5 Questions You Need To Have Answered Before You Back-Test Your Forex System
As 90-95% of new forex traders lose money within the first 3-6 months this article helps to guide new forex traders by asking 5 questions that the forex trader needs to know prior to back-testing their forex system. Let us jump right in... 1. What data type are you using (or going to use)? I know this sounds strange, especially if you have experience from another market such as stocks as their generally is only one type of data source available. However, in the forex market you can have up to 4 different data types: bid, ask, mid and indicative. Each have their own little nuances. If you would like to know more about the data types then visit the article written about the perils of indicative prices. As this will save me from having to repeat the information again and boring those who've already read it. So, if you know you have indicative prices then you know you're in for some good results! However, if you have any of the other three you need to be careful on how stop and limit orders are placed. As an example: If we had bid price history and we were looking to place a buy entry stop at 0830 EST according to the day's high, then we know that the bid price will not accurately reflect what the actual price of our order should be. You would have noticed that if you placed a buy entry stop at the exact same price as that of the day's high you would have entered prematurely - you would have entered 4 or 5 pips before the high or the low of the day was touched (the exact same amount as the spread your broker offers!). This leads me into the next most important question... 2. What spread is your broker offering on the currencies you are bask-testing? You need to know this as this can help you set your slippage settings on each currency. As our example in question 1 pointed out. We found that our buy at the day's high method did not exactly work because we bought at the BID PRICE high, not the ASK PRICE high - the price that we need when we place our order TO BUY. Therefore, we enter in a slippage setting representing the spread that would be exhibited by this trade on this currency. But knowing at what price to buy is only half the problem... how do we know what quantity to buy? 3. What margin does your broker offer? If we know at what price to buy our currency at we need to inform our broker on what quantity to buy to fulfill the order. We only know what quantity to buy by the margin that the brokerage firm offers. Most brokerage firms offer 100:1 leverage, however, some firms offer mini accounts with 200:1 leverage, others only 50:1 leverage. Find out the margin required. 4. What restrictions does your broker impose? Now, I don't just mean margin and spread restrictions as I have mentioned above. These are important in their own right, what you need to find out are the details. This is probably the most important question of all as the fine line between success and failure can be found in the details. Now you can have this questioned by one of two ways: 1. You can find out through experience (generally the most expensive way unless done through the demo account!); or 2. You ask your broker (the cheapest and best way). Why is this so important? I hear you ask. Well let's say you have a system that trades any gaps that might form on Sunday at 1700 EST, but your broker does not open until 1730 EST. You either need to factor this restriction in to your system, or move onto another system completely. Or, you may have a system that has 10 pip stops, but you find out that your broker will only let you place 15 pip stops from your initial entry price. Once again you will need to change your system to see whether it still performs well, or throw out your system (or change your broker)! In fact one of the most devastating restrictions imposed by FXCM is that they do not accept stop entry orders if price never happens to trade at your entry stop price! FXCM will honor and "take the loss" of your OPEN stop positions, but if the liquidity is not there and price has shot straight through your stop price then you will miss out. This can have disastrous effects on your system results as you are left wondering on trades where you made good returns - "Would FXCM have got me in?". You may want to read of some of the quirks I use when placing entry stop orders on FXCM that could be of huge benefit to you to help you possibly get around this problem. The restrictions by your broker are only half your systems' success, you also need to find out about another more important restriction... yourself. This leads me to the final point... 5. What restrictions do you have? This is a vitally important question. Most people test their systems and fall in love with the results but find when they trade their system they have lost their account and that most of the best signals occurred while they were sound asleep! As the forex market is a 24 hour market, you need to put into place restrictions in your system that will be realisticly conducted by you during the course of a normal trading day. There is no use operating a trailing stop method that changes your stop points during times when you are asleep and cannot possibly do so. I hope this article has made you aware of some of the important things that need to be known prior to testing your system. Article written by Ryan Sheehy from Currency Secrets.com. Where you will find reviews on forex data vendors, signal providers, brokers, and popular forex resources, along with more quality articles... all for f*ree! |
Other Currency Trading Articles
Program Trading Wizened Wall Streeters say that you’ll have more investing success if you remove emotion from your buy and sell decisions. Perhaps the most emotionless approach is program trading.This is a generic term used to describe trading in stocks, options and futures based on price relationships and not on the underlying fundamental strength or we ...Currency Trading Fee Concept Troubles with Global Economy; Do you see future problems with our global economic plans to make a one world system, where free trade and prosperity can rein the world over. Many world leaders have agreed a one-world system is best for all. It is in the interest of third world and in the interest of our Multi-National Conglomerates, their stockho ...Beginners Education in Forex Trading - Find The Best If you are looking for a beginners education in Forex Trading the best place to look is on the World Wide Web. Simply type in a “beginners education in forex trading” into a well known search engine like Google or Yahoo and you will be presented with scores of websites offering you step by step articles and also full downloadable e-books and e-c ...Forex Guide The term Forex is the short form of Foreign Exchange. Any type of financial instrument that is used to make payments between countries is taken to be foreign exchange. Electronic transactions, paper currency, checks and signed, written orders called bills of exchange are all instruments of foreign exchange.Forex indicates increased or dec ...Currency Trading Seminars A seminar is a workshop conducted with an intention of teaching the audience about a subject. Currency trading seminars are basically helps advise the traders or potential traders about the subject. Seminars could address any issue that affects the market.The forex market is an attractive short-term trading option and, because of its low ...Writing A Trading Plan All professional traders have a trading plan. Trading futures is a zero sum game and those with a plan (and the discipline to apply it) will succeed over those that have no plan. A plan details the particular market anomaly that you intend to exploit - your edge. Human emotion creates anomalies - essentially, the fear and the greed of those t ...Forex Mechanical Trading Systems That Make Money In essence forex mechanical trading systems are designed to make trading decisions for you. However is letting a software program that runs on auto pilot a good place to put your fiscal responsibilities as an investor?Obviously the idea of having trading software is irresistible to most people as it is very appealing to think of your deci ...How Does the Exchange Rate Exactly Works The exchange market mechanism can be pretty confusing for a person who doesn’t have specialised knowledge in this area. The connection between the exchange rate of a currency and its trade deficit may seem like an undecipherable mystery. In order for you to understand the hidden mechanism of the exchange market and the trade deficit, we’ll discu ...E-currency Trading Program How to Make Money? You just heard about the E-currency Exchange Program. You hear about people making money with it. You wonder if you can make money with it. Is it too complex? Is it a scam? Could you double your income with it? Read on to find the answers.How soon before I can double my investment? Will I be able to get my money out? Can you really make m ...Electronic Currency Exchange Matt Gagnon, Warren Barnes and Gary Jezorski You first find out about the E-currency Exchange Program. You are not sure sure exactly what it is but you immediately realize it's an opportunity where you could double your income without much work.You first realize that making money with the E-currency Trading Program may not be such a simple task to learn. You need to have a good stra ...General Guides for FOREX Trading Newbie Being new to FOREX trading? Don’t worry, getting started in FOREX trading is easy and you can always test your skills first in a demo account before you go ‘live’ with real money. To get started in FOREX trading, we have to get to know what FOREX is. For the inexperienced, FOREX trading involves buying and selling the different currencies of the ...The Best Time to Day Trade the Forex Market The three major forex trading ‘sessions’ are as follows (all in Eastern Standard Time):1. New York open 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM 2. Japanese/Australian open 7:00 PM to 3:00 AM 3. London open 3:00 AM to 11:00 AM** Often, the best times to trade is at the beginning 3-5 hours of the above mentioned opening times, because the maj ...Securing Risk-free Arbitrages on Betting Exchanges Most people have now become familiar with the concept of arbitrages, and the opportunities which betting exchanges create in order to secure an arbitrage.As a very brief explanation to those who may be unfamiliar to the term, an arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a state of imbalance between two or more markets. A combinatio ...Electronic Currency Exchange: The Program Concept If you are just learning about this electronic currency exchange opportunity and you want to find out more, then read on as this article was written for you.Electronic currency exchange (or e-currency exchange) is a system that allows you to profit from an investment, earning interests everyday that range from 0.5% to 5% for each 24 hour ...'Fixed Ratio' Money Management Money management is the most important and overlooked subject in trading!In my opinion, the best money management system for Forex/Futures traders is outlined in great detail in Ryan Jones' book The Trading Game: Playing by the Numbers to Make Millions. In this book, he teaches 'Fixed Ratio' money management. This method, he argues, will ...Seven Deadly Trading Mistakes - Part One By studying at the most frequent reasons for failure, we can avoid making the same mistakes as the crowd, and thus turn these negative points into positives. In this series of articles, I will be looking at the seven most common mistakes I see made by traders.Mistake Number One - Switching Strategiesor "The Hunt For The Holy Grail" ...Currency Trading Online It seems that since the personal computer and Internet took over the world, opportunities to make money are everywhere. Lots of people have decided that the traditional nine to five job isn't for them, and have found new ways to supplement their income. The stock market is very popular, and huge amounts of stocks are traded every day around th ...How To Trade Choppy Markets A lot of people wonder how in the world to make a trade in a market where choppy mood swings are an every day event. When this happens, instead of blindly throwing money at a stock you think should run, you have to take into account what "could" happen if you are on the wrong side of a huge drop.What is the average trader to do? Well, dur ...What is Forex? The first forex firm appeared in 1927, in Stockholm, in a barber shop. Since then it is developed and the IT techniques are making it a global market.In 1927, a Swedish firm has begun its activity as a currency exchange service for travelers. The society’s siege was at the Central Station in Stockholm. According to the legend, the owner o ...Basic Forex Strategies Explained When it comes to successful Forex trading, there are two basic strategies used by the majority of traders: fundamental analysis and technical analysis.Fundamental AnalysisIn fundamental analysis, Forex traders look for causes that might trigger market fluctuations. These may include political activities, financial ...Currency Trading Proceed With Caution The key to a successful portfolio is diversification. One of many areas an individual can invest in is currency trading. Using the foreign-exchange rate, two currencies are compared to determine one currencies value compared to the other. The simple laws of supply and demand apply even in the foreign exchange market. A currencies value will inc ...Trading the News: Non-Farm Payrolls, November 3rd 2006 First, the FiguresIf you cast your minds back to last month (or take a look at our account of the October 2006 report) you will remember that the headline figure was much worse than expected. However, monthly revisions to the data from August, a better than expected unemployment rate and annual Non-Farm Payroll revisions (very few ...The Advantages of Technical Analysis for Currency Trading We have already looked at the difference between fundamental and technical analysis of currency trading in our “currency trading success” article, here we will concentrate more on the advantages of technical analysis for currency trading and how to build a successful system.There are many different methods and tools utilized in technical ...Perks of Automated Forex Day Trading Are you interested in automated forex day trading? There are many things that you should know about automated forex trading, and this is a great place to learn about it. The idea of automated forex day trading is recently getting more and more popular. Futures exchange was the first to adopt this system and later on, the FX market followed suit ...Trading with Support and Resistance Support and resistance has long been a staple in trading indicators. Support and resistance is a simple concept that has its roots in the supply and demand theory. When looking at a chart you see price action that appears to be random but, by adding support and resistance theory to the equation you will see that the price movements are not alway ...Online Stock Trades According to experts, you must think of your trading as a business and the stocks that you hold as its inventory. You can’t allow yourself to fall in love with and thereby hang on to a stock out of loyalty. You will find it especially hard to admit you have made a mistake; nevertheless, you have to bite the bullet and exit the position before yo ...Forex Trading Systems Forex stands for a foreign exchange (market) where dollars, Euros, and yen, the main currencies of countries like the USA, Japan, and the members of the European Union, are traded daily. Simply stated, these currencies are bought and sold. The purchase value of these currencies, in comparison with each other, keeps fluctuating on a daily basis d ...Day Trading Signals With the help of day trading signals, day traders sell all long positions and cover all short positions at the end of a working, trading day. In day trading, you usually finish the day with cash in hand, to avoid holding any risks. One of the benefits of day trading is that since the positions are closed at the end of the trading day, any sudden ...
|
