NFC South 2006 Previews and Projections
NFC Southern Division: 1) Carolina: Panther HC John Fox was a first year head man when he was hired following the Panthers dismal 1-15 season in 2001, in Fox’s first season as the man he was able to compile a record of 7-9 which was a six game win improvement over the previous season and over the past three years Fox has managed to compile a mark of 34-21 straight up and 31-24 ATS which includes a Super Bowl appearance following the 2003 season. What a turn around!! The Panthers figure to win another divisional title this year and will be helped along with an excellent draft which was highlighted with the signing of RB DeAngelo Williams. Carolina also did very well in free agency with WR Keyshawn Johnson topping the list, Johnson should give the Panthers the much needed short to middle range threat they needed to compliment WR Steve Smith. Projected record: 12-4 ** Look to play ON these Panthers when Cleveland visits on October 8th, Cleveland will be playing on the road for the 3rd time in a 4 week span and will also be playing with jet lag having just played at Oakland the week before, as a side note, according to the ole history book Cleveland is a shoddy 1-7 ATS as a non-conference road doggie of 7 or less points. 2) Tampa Bay: The Bucs had a very average draft but did manage to bolster their weak offensive line with the drafting of OG Davin Joseph and OT Jeremy Trueblood. Last year Tampa had the luxury of starting the same five offensive linemen in each contest, however, this unit allowed a total of 43 QB take downs which is not good when considering that only 8 teams in the league allowed more sacks. Tampa is a good team but not a great team. They will need to step their play up in addition to having some good fortune if they wish to unseat Carolina from the top spot in the division. This year Tampa will take on the NFL’s second toughest schedule after having the NFL’s 30th ranked schedule in terms of difficulty last season. The good news for Buc faithful is that Tampa returned 21 of 22 starters from last years playoff team. Projected record: 10-6 **Look to play ON these Bucs when they travel to New Orleans on October 8th to face the Saints, the Bucs could be sitting on a 1-2 record following games against Baltimore, Atlanta, and Carolina and will enter this contest fresh off a re-focusing bye week. Tampa has covered 4 of their past 5 contests ATS against the Saints and a peek into the ole history book reveals that these Bucs are an amazing 26-2 ATS when they win on the road in straight up fashion against divisional opponents. 3) Atlanta: When will the Falcon faithful and the media talking heads wake up and realize that QB Michael Vick is the single most over-rated player in the NFL? This handicapper has said all along since Vick’s arrival to the NFL in 2001 that Vick will never be anything more than a very average QB and will never get his team to the promised land. Vick’s five year career totals to date reveal a shoddy completion percentage of 54.1%, a TD to INT ratio of 51 to 39, and a very mediocre QB rating of 75.8, yet this guy is still viewed as a top level QB by the pundits. Go figure. Wanna talk about average? How about the fact that the Falcons are a combined 42-41-1 straight up and 39-43-2 ATS since Vick was handed the reins in 2001 and have only made the playoffs twice in five seasons with Vick under center. If Vick doesn’t step up his game and show something this season most of his backers may turn on him when considering that these Falcons had a pretty good draft and had excellent free agency pickups with the signings of OT Wayne Gandy, DE John Abraham, FS Chris Crocker, and SS Lawyer Milloy to bolster a defense ranked 22nd overall last year. Projected record: 8-8 **Look to play AGAINST these Falcons in their September 17th home game versus the visiting Tampa Bay Bucs. Atlanta will be entering this affair following a tough hard hitting road game at Carolina and it won’t get any easier against a Tampa team that knows how to defend against Vick and his running as evidenced by the Bucs having the Falcons number with regard to Tampa covering 8 of their last 11 games ATS versus the Falcons. According to the ole history book Tampa has covered a mind blowing 5 of 6 games ATS when they visit the Georgia Dome! 4) New Orleans: After six years of really mediocre up and down play the Saints organization decided to part ways with HC Jim Haslett and hired first time HC Sean Payton to take the helm. The Saints had a pretty good draft highlighted with the drafting of RB Reggie Bush out of USC who in all likelihood will be a Marshall Faulk clone with regard to his ability to play out of the backfield or line up in pass catching mode as a wide out in varying packages. The Saints also made a change at the QB position by letting Aaron Brooks ship off to Oakland and acquiring the services of Drew Brees. New Orleans posted a record of 3-13 last season and will most definitely make strides this year, however, having a new first time head man who is installing new schemes on both sides of the ball coupled with playing in a very tough division and sprinkled with games against strong AFC North and NFC East teams will simply be too much to overcome, look for a sub par rebuilding kind of year. Projected record: 5-11 **Look to play AGAINST these Saints when Tampa Bay visits on October 8th, the Bucs could be sitting on a 1-2 record following games against Baltimore, Atlanta, and Carolina and will enter this contest fresh off a re-focusing bye week. Tampa has covered 4 of their past 5 contests ATS against the Saints and a peek into the ole history book reveals that the Bucs are an amazing 26-2 ATS when they win on the road in straight up fashion against a divisional opponent. Jim Campbell runs http://www.FootballForecastor.com which has been an internet based sports handicapping service since 1997, you will be hard pressed to find another handicapper that has had the kind of success Jim has had, over the past eight years he has maintained one of the very best winning percentages of any sports handicapping service. Jim Campbell finished the final four weeks of the 2005 NFL regular season with a mark of 14-5-2 ATS coming down the stretch for a winning rate of 73.68% and for the season in the NFL he finished with an overall mark of 48-33-4 ATS for a winning rate of 59.26% and that includes a perfect mark of 7-0 ATS in the NFL Playoffs, Jim has posted a mark of 6-2 ATS over the past EIGHT years with his Super Bowl selecton. |
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