Will The Real USC Please Stand Up?
Time to go back to the well. When it comes to USC, depending on your point of view, Vegas either believes it's still 2005, or it is dramatically underestimating a team that's still on track to play in its third straight national championship game. Which is it? Let's take a look. Southern Cal is favored by 18.5 at home against an Arizona State team that's been absolutely manhandled at Cal (49-21) and home against Oregon (48-13), the only two real games it's played this year. USC has won six consecutive games over ASU, by an average of 26.7 points (and by an average of 30 points in three games at the Coliseum). Sun Devils QB Rudy Carpenter has thrown two TDs and five INTs in his two Pac-10 games this year, and for the season has seen his completion percentage, which was over 68% in his freshman year, drop to 54% so far this year. And ASU's defense is, in a word, bad. They're 89th in the country stopping the run (and this includes three games against Colorado, Nevada and Northern Arizona), and 82nd against the pass. They allow 4.1 yards per carry, and a 62.4% completion percentage against. It's hard to imagine them slowing down the Trojans much. On the other side of the coin, the Trojans haven't exactly been a bettor's paradise this year. Sure, they're 5-0, but they've failed to cover in any of their Pac-10 games so far in '06. They were a 21.5-point favorite at Arizona and won by 17, a 14-point favorite at Washington State and won by six, and a 19-point favorite at home last week against Washington, and won by six. Since a 50-point outburst in the opener against Arkansas, the USC offense has been nothing special; they still gain a ton of yards, but they're having a hard time scoring touchdowns. The wide receivers are banged-up, and no one in the crowded Trojans backfield has stepped forward to claim either Reggie Bush or LenDale White's jobs. Emmanuel Moody may be the best of the group (a 6.6 yards-per-carry average would have you believe so), but a year after Bush and White combined for 44 touchdowns, the Southern Cal runners have accounted for a grand total of six. So which is it? Is USC living off past glory, or are they lying in wait, ready to spring an explosive offensive game to announce their presence? Against Arizona State, I think the line is too low. The Sun Devils are simply dreadful against the spread in their last several games. They're 0-4 ATS in conference games, 0-6 ATS against winning teams, 1-4 ATS when underdogs by more than 10.5, and 2-5 ATS overall. I could quote you all kinds of glowing numbers about Southern Cal's recent ATS performance, but the truth is that those stats would include the past couple years, when the Trojans were dominant; this year, as I mentioned above, USC is underperforming against the number. There are no two ways about it. But this week, I think that will change. All-American candidate WR Dwayne Jarrett will be back and looking for blood (though his running mate, Steve Smith, will be out with a bad ankle). The Sun Devils' run game, behind junior Ryan Torain, has been good, but Southern Cal's rush defense is excellent (21st in the nation, 3.4 ypc against). Carpenter will throw the ball downfield, but with a TD/INT ratio of 11-to-9, he can be rattled, and will make mistakes. ASU is 2-18 straight-up against ranked teams since Dirk Koetter has been their coach, and also in the Koetter Administration, they're 0-11 in Pac-10 games played at USC, Cal, Stanford and UCLA. Last year's ASU team was an offensive powerhouse, scoring 40+ points five times. This year, though, with Sam Keller gone to Nebraska and Carpenter struggling a bit, points and yards have been more difficult to come by, and the defense has been brutal. It's possible that John David Booty and his band of '06 Trojans have me hoodwinked, but Southern Cal was good to me earlier this year against Nebraska, and I think they'll come out with guns blazing Saturday night. Remember, for all the talent it lost on defense, the Trojans are still only allowing just under 14 points a game, and still boast an impressive array of offensive talent. I don't see how the Sun Devils can score enough to stay with them. So I'm taking USC (-18.5) at home against Arizona State. Last Week: Oops. When you get caught in an avalanche, I suppose it's best to just get out quick with your head down. After four straight wins, I had a piece of Auburn, as a 15.5-point favorite, hosting Arkansas. Yeah, right. Well, not only did Arkansas cover, they won the dang game. I TiVo'd this one, and fast forwarded through the uninteresting parts. Then, by the third quarter, I stopped watching altogether. Kenny Irons's Heisman candidacy went up in a puff of smoke, as the Hogs completely shut him down with a zone-blitzing scheme that had the Tigers shaking their heads all day. Thus does another national championship hope come crumbling down. Anyway, for the season, that puts me at 4-2 against the spread. Christopher Harris is a featured writer for the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com |
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