The Dish: Can a 16-seed top a #1?
This is it. This is the year. Princeton me no Princetons. Murray State me no Murray States. This year, for the first time ever, a 16-seed is going to topple a 1-seed. Mark it down. In a topsy-turvy world where the U.S. looks doomed in the World Baseball Classic, where George W. Bush's voodoo has apparently worn off on the nation, and where Michael Douglas has gone on record as saying he thinks Brangelina is a bad idea (hey, Mikey, where's your 36-year-old wife sleeping tonight?), this would be the final straw. Cats would sleep with dogs. Total chaos. It will happen. The Jaguars of Southern University have a tough 6-9 forward in Peter Cipriano who can give Shelden Williams all he can handle, and a 40% three-point shooter named Deforrest-Riley Smith. They will rise up and shock Duke on Thursday night. Or how about those Albany Great Danes? First of all, even the UConn mascot doesn't stand a chance. A husky against a Great Dane? As if. Sure, Albany may have lost to Harvard, but they kept UCLA close (figure that one out). They go eight-deep, and have a really good sophomore forward named Brent Wilson who can dominate a game. Connecticut is arrogant. They think they're all that. And don't forget about Oral Roberts. You think Memphis stands a chance against a university that was mandated by God? Remember back in the 1980s, when a televangelist named Oral Roberts told his viewership that if they didn't send money, God was going to "call him home"? Well, the American public responded, and the result was a huge financial empire and a university named after that televangelist. ("Televangelist U." just didn't have the same ring.) Jesus loves Ken Tutt and the Golden Eagles. And finally, the biggest lock of all, is Monmouth over Villanova. Did you see the Hawks absolutely crush hapless Hampton on Tuesday night? These guys are good. They're a really tight defensive squad, they've got a 6-10 center (more than the Wildcats can say), and they've been practicing their finger-in-the-eye routine for 48 straight hours. Can Allen Ray and Villanova stand up to that? No way. Mark it down. A 16 beats a 1. Or, y'know, not. What's your biggest surprise of the NCAA tournament seeding process? Greg Jorssen, BoDog.com: Where do I begin? How does George Washington, the #6 team in the nation, end up with a #8 seed? Now they will have to face Duke in Round 2, and what should be an early exit from the tournament. How does Cincinnati, a team with the fifth-hardest schedule in the nation and the 40th-highest RPI not get in, yet Air Force, a team that did not beat a team in the top 50 all season, gets in? How does the Missouri Valley get four entries, the same amount as the ACC? Are you telling me these two conferences are equal? Hofstra not making it despite beating George Mason twice in the final 10 days of the season? There are always questions on Selection Sunday; however, that said, this was the worst job by a Selection Committee that I have experienced in a very long time. Brian Gabrielle, BG Sports: As far as the selection process goes: I put nothing past this crooked old boys'club they refer to as the Selection Committee. I'm disappointed but not surprised that deserving teams like Hofstra and Western Kentucky were left out, and I find it laughable that programs like Arkansas and Alabama were included. As far as the seeding goes: how does Winthrop rank as a 15 seed? How does Tennessee garner a 2 seed? How does Connecticut get a red carpet rolled out to the Final Four with a bracket full of creampuffs? In short: same old same old for this time of year. What's the right way for our readers to pick their brackets? Should they aim for a certain number of upsets in each round? Should they lean heavily on the favorites under the assumption that most of the time, the favorites win out? BG, BG Sports: When looking for upsets, stay with teams who earned their way in as opposed to teams who were let in the back door. RG, BoDog.com: Chances are a 12-seed will beat a 5-seed. This has happened every year for the past five years. My upset special for Round 1 is Texas A&M defeating America's Cinderella team, Syracuse. Yes, Syracuse. The same team that was a Gerry McNamara missed three-pointer against Cincinnati away from missing the tournament altogether. The same team that last week I predicted would not make the tournament. The same team that must have read what I wrote, then proceeded to beat UConn, Georgetown, and Pitt to win the Big East. Well, I think their Cinderella story is coming to an end early and you can take that to the bank. The way I pick my bracket is predict my Final Four teams and work my way backwards. I never have more than two 1-seeded teams in the Finals, thus this year I am going with UConn and Duke. 'Nova is a question mark due to Ray's eye, and Memphis does not have the experience, nor were they tested in the regular season. I then pick a few upset specials early on, especially in the second round. One really interesting fact that I heard over the past 24 hours is that in even-numbered years since 1990, a top-seeded team has been eliminated in the second round. And that's only on even-numbered years, meaning that a top-seeded team has not lost in the second round during odd-numbered years. I don't think this year will be different: Memphis will be sent packing early! You should also keep in mind trends, such as a 16-seed never beating a top seed. I don't think you'll ever see that happen in your lifetime. As well, you should also leave your heart at the door. If you hate Duke, which I do, don't pick them to lose to George Washington in Round 2. Duke is a better team. Use your head at all times. What are some of the best wagering or parlay-type opportunities that come around on March Madness? BG, BG Sports: Moneyline parlay the #1 seeds is guaranteed money. Works like a charm. That ticket is 20-0 lifetime. RG, BoDog.com: A lot of bettors come to the sportsbook for the first time during March Madness, thus they are quick to throw money down on the favorites like Duke; however they don't do their homework on ATS records. Duke had a terrible year ATS, finishing at 13-17-1. Gonzaga finished 12-18. Teams like this are very popular for bettors, and those bettors simply drive the price up to a point where it's higher than the actual difference in ability between the two teams. Spending the extra effort will go a long way when you factor in the spread. The second thing to pay close attention to is who the Cinderella teams are, as lines tend to shift for the wrong reasons due to the media attention they receive. Another opportunity is with the Over/Under in the early rounds. Teams that are ranked highly tend to not play their starters as much when game is out of hand, thus scoring ismuch lower in earlier rounds compared to during the later rounds when the best players are called upon to perform for the entire game. Another thing is to try to ride the team that is hot as long as you can. Betting on them to end their run may not prove to be profitable in the long run. Syracuse is as hot as they get (although I did pick them to lose in the first round about two minutes ago). Finally, always have a look at where games are being played. Some teams will have home-court advantage due to game being played near their hometown. Ohio State has an opening round game in Dayton Arena. Texas is playing in Dallas. Having the backing of your hometown fans often makes the difference when it comes to picking against the spread. Christopher Harris is a featured writer for the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com |
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