NFL Superbowl Odds: Public Perception Will Skew the Line
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the source and creator of most, if not all, of the betting lines of sports games. Casinos and online sportsbooks rely on LVSC to set the odds, thus ensuring a “universal” line among all sportsbooks. During the early days of the sportsbooks, many different casinos had different lines, thus enabling the savvy gambler to “middle,” a practice that ensures a virtual low risk, but high return gamble. So, what is the main purpose of a line? Contrary to popular, public belief, most lines set by LVSC does not really “predict the final outcome” of a game; for if this were true, parlaying favorites on the moneyline would never be a losing proposition. What then is the line? The line, which can refer to the side/spread (betting on a team) or total (betting on the final score of the game to go under or over), is a quite interesting thing. It is mostly based on the oddsmakers “handicapping” the general public. In general, the line is not the “true” power rating between the two sides of any game; it is theoretically set to divide the general population to take side A and side B equally. However, in high-profile games, such as the SuperBowl or a National Championship game, the line is mostly skewed, so as to make one side REALLY attractive. How many of you thought the USC line of –7 was such an easy bet? In this matchup you have the defending National Champion playing in their own backyard, with two Heisman winners against a “good” Texas team who is yet to prove itself in the national spotlight…how could the Trojans not possibly cover that –7 spread, let alone lose the game? Well, we know what happened in that game. Well my friends, in the next couple of articles, I will try to explain how the line is formed, and offer my insights and tips into beating the sportsbooks.
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