What Bobby and Whitney Can Teach Us About Football
This past week, people across the country had to deal with one of the most shocking and upsetting social developments we’ve seen in recent years. No, I’m not referring to anything related to the September 11th memorials. I’m talking about the break-up of Bobby Brown and Whitney Houston. Bobby and Whitney were a modern Romeo and Juliet – star-crossed and misunderstood lovers doomed at the wicked hand of Fate. Their 14 years of marriage gave gossip-mongers, info-tainment junkies, and decent folks everywhere hours of unfettered enjoyment. I’m certain that each one of us has their own personal favorite story from the bizarre, disturbing and downright hilarious adventures of the cracked-out pair. But what in Vishnu’s name could Bobby and Whitney possibly have to do with football or gambling? Well, not much. But their abrupt split did get me musing on the perplexing nature of chemistry between people and groups. It’s a delicate and enigmatic concept, and one whose effect resonates throughout the Football Universe. The intangible and unseen psychological connections that exist between people have been analyzed, studied, and opined since the dawn of time. Unfortunately, I hate to say that you won’t find any grand proclamations about them in this space. My aim is much narrower: to discuss the influence – for good and ill – that these phenomena have on an inherent conundrum in sports gambling. Chemistry is that aura that cloaks the Indianapolis offense when it takes the field for a two-minute drill. It’s also there when the Chicago defense is crowding the line on third-and-long. Conversely, the lack of chemistry is what makes the Raiders locker room – with Randy Moss, Aaron Brooks, Al Davis and That Guy From Idaho – about as normal as a Flavor Flav-Brigitte Neilson and Charlie Sheen-Denise Richards double-date. And chemistry – that Great Unknown – was alive and well in Week 2 of the National Football League. Consider: - New England ended its bitter feud with former Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch by trading him to Seattle. Richard Seymour said the move left “a lot of broken hearts”, while Tom Brady saw the situation as “a big mental drain.” Despite the negative vibes in the organization, the Patriots stormed to a 24-0 lead in their straight-up, spread-covering victory against the New York Jets. - Buffalo placed fifteen-year veteran Troy Vincent on injured reserve last week as a cost-cutting measure. Takeo Spikes, Buffalo’s undisputed leader, railed the move in the media by calling it “baffling”. That bit of dissension – and the absence of both Vincent and Spikes – didn’t stop the Bills from an inspired 18-6 win at Miami. So what was it that made these groups of individuals come together and achieve success? How is it that teams suddenly get hot and go on massive winning streaks? What makes teams gel, and why do they suddenly gain momentum within a game or a season? Most importantly, should bettors be able to anticipate any of this and is it quantifiable in any way? The answer to those questions cut right to the core of a debate that always has and always will exist within the gambling community. An underlying theme within the industry is whether or not handicapping is a purely mathematical endeavor or one that involves a certain mysticism and “feel”. Consider it the oddsmaker’s version of Nature vs. Nurture. It’s also something to be contemplated before one considers wagering hard-earned green on contests of violence and skill. Your stance will likely have a direct effect on your gambling habits. But know this: if you believe that there is truly a “correct” answer to this riddle you’ll be in for some l-o-n-g days. For instance, if you feel that simply doing some extra homework and crunching some numbers will insulate you from absurd losing streaks and soul-numbing bad beats you’re mistaken. Linesmakers, sharp bettors and pro handicappers have a clear advantage in the statistics department and own a mind-boggling arsenal of data. They possess software and middleware and active matrix displays and double precision super computers. Essentially, their technological capabilities rival the space programs of some industrialized nations. Think HAL-9000 hopped up on methamphetamines and Mountain Dew. That’s not to say that mathematically savvy bettors can’t gain an edge. Just the opposite. Extrapolating info and correctly analyzing The Numbers are key components to success. But even the digit-drunk gambler routinely finds himself staring down the cold, cruel barrel of a brutal and inexplicable loss. Consider our previous Buffalo example: the Dolphins are historically one of the best early-season bets in the NFL. Miami holds a winning record against the spread at home, as a favorite, and against divisional foes in the month of September. They have started 0-2 just once in 36 years. Yet anyone playing those historical angles was still at the whim of Daunte Culpepper’s ineptitude. That being said, Miss Cleo may want to leave the tarot cards in the drawer. More than one wing of the MGM Grand was built solely on the money from saps and suckers who thought they could beat the odds simply by picking the team that “felt right”. That type of recklessness and hubris has left more than one grown man battered and weeping on the crusted couch of some seedy motel. So exactly what do we do? Are bettors caught in some metaphysical void between faith and reason? Not exactly. But I also can’t tell you that there’s a correct way to evaluate the psychological implications of random and insane events. I’ll leave that to the armchair psychologist in each of you. My best advice is that preparation and sound research can protect you from random Acts of God. But it won’t make you immune to them. Here are a few simple tips and guidelines that might help: 1) Ignore the mainstream media. Their job is to sensationalize the trivial and whip fans into a frenzy. They’re like picadors – those guys who drive lances into bulls before they are sent into the ring for slaughter. They guide the public and the public is usually wrong. 2) Emotion has a bigger role in college football than in the NFL. The pro game is one of cool efficiency, whereas hormones and pride fuel the college game. Off-field incidents and injuries will have a greater impact on younger players. 3) Play momentum. Sometimes you don’t have to understand why things work. Just know enough to ride a streak. 4) Don’t bet a game simply because something controversial happened – like a position coach getting arrested for going through a drive-thru while naked. Value in a line should draw you to a game and incidents then influence them. Not vice versa. One caveat: bet against a team where a group of contributors is involved in anything containing a combo of the words “multiple felonies”, “sex scandal”, “ring” or “scheme” (such as “illegal gambling ring” or “massive doping scheme”). 5) Letdown Games and Look Ahead Games exist. Again, college players are more susceptible though there are occurrences in the NFL. It’s more likely to happen later in the season when everyone is more conscious of win-loss records. 6) Be able to tell the difference between a team playing for pride and one playing for a paycheck. A team will play for pride at home against a rival or divisional opponent. A team will play for a paycheck on the road against someone with more talent. Carpe diem, my friends. And good luck. Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com. You can also purchase his weekly plays at Docsports.com.
Other Football Betting Articles
Fumblitis You won’t find “Fumblitis” in any medical journal, but it is an unfortunate ailment. It occurs in the fall along with the onset of winter, just like colds and the flu. It is a very series affliction, too, one that will bring migraine headaches to coaches and offensive coordinators. At times fumblitis can be fatal – to an offense. It will also tu ...World Cup Soccer: Football That Unites The World In every sporting event one can invariably find a player, a team, a nation, poised to become the next memorable story – a story that will survive the test of time and go down in history. The FIFA World Cup is unique, in that, every country can qualify. It is the only tournament that can unite the world with its common passion for the sport. It ...Play Better Poker Here is a poker strategy that many people fail to follow, but by adopting it you will help yourself become a better player and you will have an edge on the weaker players in your game.First, switch your thinking for a moment from cards to slot machines. As yourself this: What is the worst part of playing slot machines? It's when the first ...A Gambling System That Works Since gambling began, there have been people who have strived to find the perfect gambling system - one that puts the odds so much in the gambler’s favor that riches are almost certainly guaranteed. In all these thousands of years, has anyone ever really found a gambling system that works?Although there are people who claim to have found ...Don't Drink & Gamble! If you like to take a drink every now and then, leave your money at home if you plan to do your drinking in a casino. I’m serious. Empty your pocketbook, your wallet, and leave all cash, credit cards and chequebooks at home. Take whatever money you intend to spend on drinks, tipping and whatever pocket change you intend to lose and leave the re ...Winning Poker Hands Do you like to play poker? If so, you have something in common with the millions of other Americans who have caught “poker fever.” Thanks in large part to the explosive popularity of such big-money televised poker tournaments like the World Series of Poker and the World Poker Open, the game of poker is fast becoming a top sport. Texas Holdem is ...Gambling Card Games Card games for gambling purposes have been around for many years. Many card games have been developed and perfected. In fact, many people today have become addicted to gambling.Popular Card GamesWe are all familiar with the card games in casinos for gambling reasons because of the exposure they have been getting in recent times. ...What Is The Winning Chances Of Sports Gambling? Gambling in general is considered to have brought certain level of ecstasy to some, however, inspires fear and mistrust in others. On one hand, it is defined as “to take risk hoping for good return” and on the other hand it is defined as “to lose by betting or risking”. With such definitions, it is just necessary to know that gambling depends ...Poker Affiliate Pages Online Did you know that one of the reasons there are so many online casino websites out there is because of poker affiliate pages online? Poker affiliate pages online offer webmasters the possibility to receive a lot of cash by recruiting money players to their sites.It is no wonder poker affiliate pages online are in high demand. These poker a ...Baccarat Gambling - Part 2; How to Win Easily In part 1 of Baccarat Gambling we learned the game and rules, now it's time to look at how you can win!In part 2 of Baccarat Gambling we will examine the odds, best bets, and some strategy. The important thing in baccarat gambling, as in any game of chance, is to win and collect money.Here we show you how, and Baccarat gambling can ...Football Betting Betting on football is today one of the major activities for football enthusiasts. Football betting has become an easy way to earn some money, have fun and enjoy games with a different touch. Easily, football betting could become an every game activity for most of the football fans.Football betting is definitely not for everyone. You need ...Online Poker Cheats: Beware of Internet Players Cheating via Collusion Almost every poker player has run into a cheater at one time or another. Cheaters usually have little or no skill at the game, but are very good at manipulating the cards to their advantage, and at giving themselves unfair advantages over honest players. Where honest players spend their time learning all they can about the game, cheaters spend t ...The Eight Blackjack Myths that Lose You Money If you believe any of the following blackjack myths, you will lose money. Don't make that error!Myth 1: The aim of blackjack is to get as close to 21 as possibleThis is NOT the object of the game. The object is to beat the dealer's hand.Often, the best strategy is to stand depending on your hand and the dealer's up card. Man ...Win at Roulette! – How To Get The Best Odds The spinning wheel, the smell of money, and anticipation…nothing compares with roulette for sheer excitement.Do people win at roulette however? Some do, and we will show you their secrets below.The winners all have a strategy, and they stick to it, and win at roulette.To win, you need to play. To play, you need to bet. Here ...Inside the Boxscores - Week 10 - Part Inside the Boxscores is a weekly feature from Matt Fargo that has been widely recognized as the best summation in college football over the past four years. He takes an in-depth look at each game and pulls out the most pertinent information that will help you handicap games in the future. College football is filled with quirky plays, misleading ...Thursday Night CFB-Maryland/West Virginia Maryland and West Virginia have played each other every year since 1980 and the all-time series is knotted at 21-21-2. As even as this series has been, my first instinct is to take the 16.5 points Maryland is getting, but the Terrapins have dropped two straight to the Big East powerhouse. However, the Mountaineers have not won three straight ove ...Best Online Poker Every internet casino in operation today claims to offer the best online poker. So, who is telling the truth and who is lying? That answer isn’t quite so cut and dried. What is the best poker to you might not be the best poker to your friend. Two of the biggest selling points of the online casinos are the security of the site and the bonuses the ...Online Football Betting Secrets: Bet Against Lousy Teams! Sports Betting on the NFL and college football is a national pastime. Every week millions of dollars are bet on the home town favorites with local bookies. People bet even more money with online sports book agencies. Even the major news services publish all the betting stats. If you're going to bet money on games, you might as well be as informe ...The Dish: Running Backs Leave College in Droves Okay, there are just way too many running backs declaring for the NFL Draft.What, are classes at the nation's largest universities getting harder or something? No, no one's surprised that Reggie Bush declared early; he's probably going to be the first overall pick. Nor can I quibble with Vince Young (kind of an RB in QB's clothing, if you ...High Stakes Poker Online If you have good poker knowledge and a competitive spirit you might want to try your hand at playing high stakes poker online. At a top rated poker room on the Internet you can play high stakes poker online anytime you want without going to the time and expense of traveling to a distant casino. You’ll find that all of your favorite games are ava ...Why a Poker Bonus is Offered There are many players who like to be able to play poker. They enjoy playing poker in a variety of atmospheres, both the physical world and the online realm. The challenges that are to be offered in such a stimulating and exciting game such as those found in poker are incredibly unique and appealing to players. Players are enthralled by the m ...Online Poker Site Tips If you are trying to find a great place to play poker online, you may be looking for a few good online poker site tips to help with your selection. Knowing what makes a great poker site can be a huge help in choosing a place to play. These online poker site tips will give you a place to start and some advice on what to look for when choosing a s ...High Stakes Poker If you enjoy playing poker and are interested in getting more action you may want to try playing high stakes poker on the Internet. There are high stakes poker games available where you can play with and learn from the pros. If you just want to play at a single table in a non-tournament format then that is available. However, if you want to go f ...
|
