Football Value Betting
In football betting, picking winners is easy, finding a value winner however is not. If you want a football betting system that wins over 50% of the time then just bet on all the big favourites at the range of 1.1 – 1.5, but if you do you will definitely not make a profit. Football bets with good value are bets which will give you a positive payoff over time. To check if there’s value in your football bets, simply multiply the % winning chance of your chosen side with the best decimal price of the bet. A result of more than 1.0 means that it is a value bet! (The greater the number, the greater the edge you will have over the bookmakers.) Value betting example: If you think that Manchester United playing at home has a 45% chance of winning against Chelsea, with the price of AH -0.5 set at 2.30. Football value betting formula: 45% x 2.30 Result: 1.035 At 1.035, Manchester United just has the right value to be supported at 2.30, however the edge over the bookmakers isn’t that great. The result from using the value-betting formula is very useful in deciding the amount to stake on, which I will further cover in the “Kelly Criteria” betting section soon.
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