Fixed Odds Strategy - Why Hedge when you can Gain an 'Edge'?
Is there any point in having a fixed odds strategy? Is it really possible to gain a betting ‘edge’ over the bookmaker? After all it is widely recognised that the odds set are unfair and only serve to increase the over-round. Although it is a formidable task, the answer to both questions, is yes! To do so it is necessary to locate ‘value’ in the odds, where the true chance of winning is greater than that estimated by the bookie. We all enjoy that feeling when we get a winning line up, but in truth, and it shouldn’t really come as a great surprise, as many as 95% of gamblers fail to win at fixed odds sports betting over a long term! The established firms are adroit at setting the prices, estimating the true chance of a sports result, and locking into a profit margin. However, they are not infallible and this is when the knowledgeable punter, with a fixed odds strategy, capitalise on their mistakes and gain the all important ‘edge‘. There has to be an element of risk management as part of your fixed odds strategy. Smaller stakes obviously involve less risk, but it also means smaller profits and a betting ‘edge’ will take longer to attain. Despite the greater over-round, many punters like to increase the number of selections of their wager, evidently attracted by the potentially high returns. Nevertheless, trebles and accumulators unsurprisingly bring with them a higher risk than a straight forward single bet, as obviously with each additional selection the likelihood of losing increases. To derive maximum benefit from the superior returns available with these types of bets, a punter needs to place the same stake for their doubles, trebles or accumulators, as they would for a single. In truth, a multiple bet is just a single wager at longer odds, but with a substantially larger over-round. The obvious downside, if this is the preferred method of betting, is the chances of ever gaining an ‘edge’ over the bookie will diminish rapidly if you hit a losing run. Through careful match selection and the endorsement of the principle of value betting, your fixed odds strategy can pay dividends. Value betting, basically involves assessing if the odds supplied by the bookmaker are greater than those that you estimate. For you to arrive at your approximation you need to consider the statistics surrounding each individual match. In actual fact, your fixed odds strategy is effectively an on-going evaluation process. Punters will differ in their methods of acquiring their ‘knowledge’ to use in their fixed odds strategy. Some use a ratings system, others browse over sports journals and internet sites and extract as many facts and figures as possible. In particular, attention could be paid to injury problems, suspensions, morale of the team, changes in management, local derbies, old players returning, even the weather! There are also some who rely on a hunch, taking into account one or more of the snippets of information they may glean from the above. If fixed-odds-in-focus were to offer any advise it would be to follow some simple ‘don’t do’ rules: Don’t place a bet just for the sake of it! Don’t waste money on high accumulators! (if the temptation is too great, have only a minor gamble and concentrate the bulk of your stake on a more likely wager). Don’t persist with losing systems! Also, make sure that you keep on top of the current form, that one little piece of data could make all the difference! Since odds are just probabilities, value betting realistically offers the only way to defeat the bookie. If a punter is regularly finding winners and making a profit, it simply means they are finding more success than the bookmaker believes they ought to be, according to the odds they’ve set. If this is the case, then the punter has truly found some value bets and established an ‘edge‘. There will always be conflict between necessity to control risk and impulse to achieve high profits, basically the two types of gamblers - the risk taker and the risk avoider; a bit of a tortoise and hare situation! The risk taker will probably win more in the short term, but must accept a greater prospect of misfortune, where as the risk avoider, who tolerates a slower rate of returns, may well be betting long after the former has been forced out of the ‘game’! So all things considered, and whilst accepting there is no right or wrong way, a fixed odds strategy centred around risk management, seemingly offers the best long term security for the average fixed odds punter!
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