Early Picks and Observations
The object of this newsletter is to give an early look at some games we have already played or are looking at playing. We are providing information we are looking at to help make our decision and in short, give you a snapshot in time during the early part of the handicapping week. We want to add extra value to being a full-client of Vegas Sports Authority. Obviously, providing winners is the bottom line. However, we have a number of clients who also play their own picks and like to see what we are playing or considering to provide some extra guidance for their own selections. Many of our clients are very sharp bettors who just do not have the time to follow 119 college and 32 pro football teams. Please realize these are early in the week plays, weather information, injury info, and other news can cause us to change our minds and potentially buy back a wager. Just because we have placed these wagers does not guarantee they will be an official Premium Pick selection. While Paul and I communicate extensively regarding the coming week’s games, we do not always share the same opinion or play the same plays. There will be games we have a difference of opinion on. Some of our wagers are made in anticipation of a line move the opposite direction to give us the opportunity to “middle” the game by placing an offsetting wager later in the week hoping to win both sides. As always, comments and questions are welcome. Past Week Notes College • Those who discount the impact of a placekicker need only look to Colorado's Mason Crosby who kicked field goals of 52, 42 and 50 yards in the Buffs' 23-20 road victory over Kansas State Saturday. The third of the three field goals by Crosby, who will be a consensus first-team All-American, came as time ran out. • Regularly-scheduled open weeks and an unplanned hurricane places the South Florida Bulls in an unusual, mid-season spot in their game this Saturday at Rutgers. On the eve of Saturday's game, the Bulls will have played exactly one game in the previous 34 days. While Rutgers has played five games since Sept. 30, South Florida has played just two. Does it make any difference in one's approach to handicapping the game? Maybe a little, but would not give it too much credence. What the Bulls may have lost in timing has been offset by the healing of those little bumps and bruises that begin to effect most teams this time of year. * Much has written about Tennessee's incredibly disappointing season punctuated by Monday's resignation of offensive coordinator Randy Sanders who succeeded former Mississippi head coach David Cutcliffe in that role (Cutcliffe was essentially fired at Mississippi this past offseason). But what about Purdue? Purdue was picked to win the Big 10 by a number of respected pundits, including Phil Steele of Northcoast Sports, but limps into Saturday's home game against Michigan State with a 2-6 record and six straight losses. The Boilermakers returned all 11 starters from a defense which gave up just 17.2 points per game last year and figured to be one of the nation's best this season. Instead, Purdue ranks 116th out of 117 teams in total defense (476 yards per game) and 106th in scoring defense (33.9 points per game). * Most who follow college football closely would acknowledge USC's offense ranks among the best in recent history, if not all time. Evidence to support this belief was the performance of QB Matt Leinart and WR Dewayne Jarrett in the Trojans' 55-13 victory over Washington State Saturday. Leinart was 20-of-31 for three TDs and 302 yards, while Jarrett caught seven passes for 138 yards and a touchdown. Of course, these numbers came in first half only. • North Carolina State, whose head coach Chuck Amato is probably not house hunting in Raleigh these days, had a miserable first half in its 21-17 victory over Southern Miss. Trailing, 7-0, at the half, the Wolfpack had almost as many turnovers (four) as first downs (five) as first-time starter Marcus Stone was 1-for-7 for 15 yards and two interceptions in the opening two quarters. The Wolfpack, however, rallied for the victory and kept its bowl hopes alive. NFL Losing a sports bet hurts. Sure, anybody who bets knows you aren’t going to win them all. But you really feel short-changed when “your team” is not even in the game as was the case with the Redskins against the Giants. It was so bad I couldn’t watch the game. Oh, yeah, the Skins were a pick of VSA. Nobody likes to admit he made a mistake, but Jim Kruger sure made a big one in discounting the Wellington Mara, Jr. death as a factor. Tiki Barber sets a personal record with 206 yards rushing. Giants smother Washington. Denver continues to look like an AFC force, beating the pants off of Philadelphia. It really adds to the belief that the AFC is exceptionally better than the NFC. The NFC on the road against the AFC has not shown very well at all. Paul and I don’t always agree with what play to make. Last week he was very adamant about taking the Houston Texans over the Cleveland Browns. I liked the Browns. Paul talked me out of taking the Browns. I actually had bet Cleveland early in the week but ended up buying my bets back. I also wasn’t very keen about Paul’s Packers pick. Was concerned the Bengals might be madder than a hornet after their loss to the Steelers. I thought it was just about time to stick the fork in Favre and Green Bay. They lost, but the important thing is they covered. Miami really put it to New Orleans outgaining the Saints 342 to 203. They also rushed for 188 yards, their best output year to date, with Brown and Williams both looking better than they have all year. I am having a rough time reading this Dolphin team. EARLY SELECTION OF THE WEEK Conference USA entrants Houston and Central Florida are certainly two of the most improved teams in all of college football this season. Coming off a 0-11 showing last season, UCF entered 2005 with a 15-game losing streak (dating back to 2003) and that string stretched to 17 as the Golden Knights opened this season with losses at South Carolina and South Florida. Since the South Florida loss, however, Central Florida has won five of six games and currently sports a 5-3 record. After a disappointing 3-8 mark last season, Houston has reverted to its Hawaii Bowl form of 2003 as the Cougars are off to a 4-3 start behind the quarterbacking of veteran junior signal-caller Kevin Kolb. The Cougars are 3-1 straightup on the road this season, with wins over Tulsa, Tulane and Mississippi State. Their lone road defeat this year was in double overtime (44-41) at UTEP. Houston did not play last week and is 10-5 ATS off a bye since 1995. Paul Stone recommends laying the 3 points and taking Houston in this matchup of improved squads. Coming College Attractions & wagers already placed: Toledo is very good at home at the Glass Bowl, quite human on the road where they haven’t covered their last 5 road games. The MAC used to be a conference with the biggest gap between top and bottom teams. The gap is getting more narrow. Ohio’s offense is improving, but unfortunately Toledo lost last week to Central Michigan which should mean a focused effort from the Rockets. Giving eleven points on the road, however….. I played a bit on the UNDER in the Boston College- North Carolina match at 44. Should be a hard fought battle as both teams are coming off of losses to superior talents, Va Tech and Miami. UNC is fighting to keep their bowl hopes alive. One of the participants at my weekly handicappers/sports bettors meeting has a system that has worked tremendously for him the past two years, around a 75% winning ratio. He picks Northwestern as a home dog over Iowa. Iowa has only averaged 14 ppg on the road this year. Kruger played the UNDER 54 in the match between Western and Eastern Michigan. EMU has gone UNDER in all 8 games this year and have had a bye week to prepare for the WMU passing attack. I won with EMU a couple of weeks ago and very well could be on them again. Before you big dog players jump on Duke +31 against Clemson, remember that Duke is 0-8 ATS this year and that Clemson has revenge for losing straight-up last year to a team that was only 2-9. Also interesting to note is Arkansas being a four-point favorite to a South Carolina team that just beat Tennessee at home and has won three straight. Also, the Gamecocks are looking to become bowl-eligible with their next victory. Is the linesmaker telling us something? For my bucks, it is Arkansas or nothing. I jumped on Penn State when the line first came out at minus ten. Joe Pa’s crew is looking like the class of the Big Ten and this could be the week to expose the Wisconsin Badgers as the team they really are. NFL this week: Interesting point was raised a couple of weeks ago at the handicappers meeting I go to every Tuesday in that historically speaking it is a winning proposition to play on teams at the halfway point that are 2-6 SU or worse and to play against the teams that are 6-2 or better straight up. Don’t recall the winning percentage but it was higher than 54%. Detroit at Minnesota – You don’t get the Vikings as a home dog very often. Especially to the Detroit Lions! Minnesota gets another reason to rally, group together, and give a strong showing. This time it is losing your long-time QB Culpepper to injuries. In fact, the Vikes have only been a home dog 8 times over the last five years. They’ve posted a nice 6-2 ATS record when in such a situation. A good situation to bet on is a team that did terribly on the road the previous week and now return home. Detroit is 29th in total offense. The last two games behind QB Garcia they have only scored 13 points each game. Minny has done better at home, we have played the Vikings lightly at this point. Brad Johnson is a serviceable QB, can’t be much of a step below the Lions’ Garcia. San Diego at NY Jets - Betting the NFL, sometimes you have to make wagers that almost hurt. Witness San Francisco last week and to a lesser extent, Houston. Well, this week the painful bet is going to be on the New York Jets +6 at home over the San Diego Chargers. The Jets are off of a bye. They went into the bye losing twice in a row. Chargers have to be pretty happy with themselves beating their arch-rival Kansas City Chiefs. AND, after this “easy win” over the hapless Jets, the Chargers get to take a week off and go and do whatever they want! Whose mind is going to be on this game? We think the J-E-T-S! Last week we wrote about a “Mystery Game” that we did not reveal the teams. We have had a lot of people ask us who the team was we were waiting on the line to move more before we released it. Well, it didn’t move any more than where it was already, but it turned out to be a winner, not just against the spread but outright, also. The play, as I announced on the Stardust Line Saturday night on KDWN radio in Vegas was on San Francisco. NBA I love the NBA. Actually, any basketball is fine with me, it is by far my favorite sport. I like betting the NBA as it is an everyday occurrence. There are many factors you need to use in handicapping NBA games. No team is able to give 100% every single game for a seven-month long season. Matchups, travel schedules, injuries, style of play, etc. are just a few variables that have to be looked at closely. We come out firing in the NBA. The lines are the softest at the beginning of any season, regardless of the sport. The best opportunity to win at sports betting comes through excellent preparation before the season starts. Watching the first few weeks to “see how teams are doing” is actually saying “I haven’t done the proper research”. Good Luck this weekend! Jim Kruger
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