The Bullpen - Key to Profits
Baseball is right around the corner so it’s time to start looking at some of the basics. Starting pitching and offense are the two things that people look at most when handicapping baseball but there is one aspect that is considered by some to be the most important and that is the bullpen. A shaky bullpen can kill a quality start and can erase a big lead given to them by the offense so if the bullpen falters, starting pitching and offense doesn’t even matter. On the flip side, a good bullpen will do just the opposite and protect those big leads and give the starters good support throughout the season. The middle relief is where games are won and lost and a good middle rotation takes pressure off the closer as well as the starters since they don’t need to feel they have to throw a near perfect game in order to get a win. Looking at the 2005 season, the top ten teams in bullpen ERA were Cleveland, St. Louis, Chicago, Minnesota, Oakland, San Diego, Los Angeles Angels, Washington, Seattle and Houston. It’s no surprise that seven of those teams were in the top 10 in profits with Minnesota, San Diego and Seattle being the only teams not to show a profit. Those seven teams were a combined +8,542 in profits. Coincidence? Not a chance. Extending out further, the top ten teams in bullpen ERA finished a combined +4,725, a very solid ending number. Looking at the bottom five teams in bullpen ERA, only Boston finished the season with a winning record and the Red Sox and Devil Rays were the only of those five teams to finish in the black on the money line. The combined losses were -3,438 so a bad bullpen leads to some ugly numbers. Going back a year and there is not much of a difference. Looking at the 2004 season, the top five teams in bullpen ERA were St. Louis, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Texas and Atlanta. Four of those teams were the top four teams in profits with Anaheim being the only team not in the top four. Those four teams were a combined +7,745 in profits showing once again that a solid bullpen leads to the cash. Overall, the top ten teams in bullpen ERA finished a combined +5,305. Looking at the bottom five teams in bullpen ERA, only Cincinnati finished the season with a profitable year as Detroit, Cleveland, Toronto and Colorado all finished in the red. The combined losses were -3,585 which is very close to what the bottom five finished with in 2005. A closer obviously plays a big role in the outcome of a game but just how big? Four teams finished last season with a blown save percentage of 25 percent or less. Three of those teams, Chicago, Cleveland and Los Angeles were the top moneymakers with the Astros being the only team on the outside but not by far. The four combined to go +6,538 on the money line. Trying to handicap the bullpens is the toughest part since the pitchers are coming in an out, whether it’s to and from the minors or back and forth from the starting rotation. Knowing who is back there is extremely important and looking at daily transactions is a must since the bullpen is constantly turning over for most teams. It’s an aspect that is overlooked by most but obviously should not as the analysis can make or break your season.
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