Seeds of Gold
Cinderella went to one ball, Cinderfella to another. His was called the Big Dance, but -- alas! -- Cinderfella made an early exit. Such is the fate of the Hamptons, Bucknells and Belmonts that struggle so just to make the NCAA Tournament field, then go home after a single whirl, garnering scads of pub that adds up to much ado about nothing. Smart college gamblers and handicappers know, however, that gold usually is hidden beneath that dance floor. One place to look is the seedings. Las Vegas handicapper Shaun Hess, who has been busy celebrating early second half conference tournament favorites (the well ran dry Friday night), exchanges sports information with contacts across America and Canada. One e-mail buddy sent him a chart that shows how certain seeds have performed against each other and the numbers tell their own story. The trend advises money line players shouldn`t go wrong wagering on No. 1 seeds in the tourney`s opening round, while those who bet on ATS favorites likely will encounter problems coming out ahead. Straight up, top seeds are an awesome 20-0 against the pitiful No. 16 seeds over the last five years; ATS, though, they`re a lot more down-to-earth 10-9-1. No. 2 and three seeds are 19-1 SU, but ATS the story is much different. They`re 7-13 and 9-10-1. The former stat means No. 15s covered 65 percent of the time, but didn`t win SU. Throw in fourth seeds and the group is 73-7 SU for a 91 percent winning percentage. "Money line parlay city," Hess said. This spring`s second seeds and their opponents are No. 2 Texas minus 17 vs. No. 15 Penn; No. 2 Tennessee minus 9 vs. No. 15 Winthrop; No. 2 Ohio State minus 11 vs. No. 15 Davidson and No. 2 UCLA minus 20 vs. No. 15 Belmont. Dig a little deeper and more nuggets will be gleaned. No. 12 seeds, going against the No. 5s, won SU at a 45 percent clip. "Money line dog city," Hess declared. Sunday`s seeding annoucement paired No. 5 Syracuse minus 1 vs. No. 12 Texas A&M; Washington minus 6 vs. No. 12 Utah State; No. 5 Nevada minus 7 vs. No. 12 Montana and No. 5 Pittsburgh minus 6 vs. No. 12 Kent State. No. 7s, he noted, won SU and covered at a 65 percent rate. This season`s No. 7s and teams they will face are No. 7 California minus 1 vs. No. 10 North Carolina State; No. 7 Wichita State minus 1 1/2 vs. No. 10 Seton Hall; No. 7 Georgetown minus 3 vs. No. 10 Northern Iowa and No. 7 Marquette minus 1 vs. No. 10 Alabama. Pointspreads are opening lines at the Las Vegas Hilton.
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