Spread Betting for Profit
Lets face it the main reason we bet on the spread market is for profit, in fact the main reason why we bet and gamble is for profit, yes we bet for the thrill of betting, the excitement it brings and how insignificant sporting events all of a sudden become extremely significant. There are many theories, guides and strategies on the Internet on how you can make spread betting profitable and successful and I wouldn’t disagree with most of them but on this page I outline what I have found successful in my spread betting career. Research This is the single most vital part of spread betting and what I find to be a very enjoyable part, going on the quest for knowledge and information and finding new sources is brilliant. In sports like cricket you should always find out the weather, wicket, team selection and any team rifts but more specifically you need to be able to realise what the likely outcomes are for such events, ask yourself questions will favourites be winning in horse races when the going is good to fair. In football it makes a massive difference about team morale and rifts in the squad and arguments between players i.e. when Nistlerooy was dropped by Fergie, United’s av.goals per game dropped by roughly 0.3 which has a knock affect on the total goals market. Any bet you make check that you are betting on it for the right reasons not just a hunch factual information is needed to form an opinion valid enough to put a bet on. That is where profit is won and lost (plus a bit of luck). Account management Create a spreadsheet listing all your bets details such as what sport, what market, whether you bought or sold, where your research or tip came from, quantity staked and profit or loss. e.g. |Sport | Market | Buy/Sell | Research/Tip | Stake | Spread | Profit/Loss | | Golf | Leaderboard | Buy | Spreadbuddy | £10 | 9-11 | +£90 | By completing your betting history into a table such as this you can obtain valuable information over a period of time, such as which sports are returning your interest with money, which markets are best to buy or sell, if any tipsters are actually good at what they do or and if the research you did into the bet paid off. If you are doing research into what betting strategies work for you I would recommend trying to keep to a level stake so you can gauge easily what is successful and what is not. Always be fully aware of the possible profits and losses of every bet you make before confirming each bet, because as much as a banker that you think a bet is you are still aware of the outcome should it turn on its head. Market Selection From past experiences I would strongly recommend only dabbling with the markets that you fully understand, by this I mean from the sport you are betting on, to the type of market you are betting on such as total goals. Many people have got caught out with some markets for example I have read about people thinking that a total goals stake was for each decimal point not per goal, so instead of betting a £200 stake for each goal they placed a £20 stake thinking it was for each decimal point. It turns out the punter won £42 instead of the £420 he thought he was receiving. Weather Effects Be aware of what effect the weather has on each sport that you back and always do your research on what the weather forecast is for that particular region. For example with cricket if there are thunder storms ahead locally and you know about it before the spread companies get told you can jump on selling total runs for that day and make a killing, or things like sunny Formula 1 races attract much faster lap times than when the wet tyres have to come out. Find the value As a Spread bettor you need to be able to define the difference between value and a winner, a bet with value does not always mean that you have a winner on your hands, value means that the spread is actually over estimated or underestimated to a likely outcome. Take for instance the Republic of Ireland vs. Holland match in this Ireland had around 8 players out injured, assistant boss Sir Bobby Robson had been taken ill and Steve Staunton had a fracas which involved him being threatened with a gun pointed at his head. On top of this new kid on the block in Dutch football Huntelaar was making his first international start, combined together I would say a comprehensible victory for Holland. The spread companies did not think so by saying Holland would win by 0.4 goals I disagreed and won £850 that is a good definition of value in a market. Mathematical Betting Mathematical betting can be very profitable and successful, my personal opinion is view the statistics, and take them into account but by no means rely on mathematical betting unless you have been told of an arbitrage. Mathematical betting does not take into account the climate of football clubs the transfers in and out of clubs that can have a massive impact. Here is an extreme example of what could happen betting on mathematical previous statistics, Aston Villa have not beaten Arsenal in the league for 10 years only scoring 2 goals whilst conceding 25 goals, in the summer a multi billionaire takeover happens of Aston Villa and spends 200million on transfers, whilst at Arsenal the manager leaves their star striker leaves and the team is in disaray and lack any form of direction. This is an extreme example of how statistics can’t give you a full insight into how this match could turn out. Analyse Market Movers Market movers can prove to be very profitable to a spread bettor, there is not a general rule for negative and positive market movers just to analyse and look for information as to reasons why the prices are moving so much, horse racing is best for this but there is limited time to research the reasons, most of the time there are justified reasons for the change in price so it can be worth jumping on before it plummets further, other times it could be moving in the wrong direction opening up the chance for more value in the spread, an example of this was England’s price in the world cup, a huge amount of patriotic backing lead to the price being inaccurate regardless of the chance of England winning the world cup. Negative thinking proves profitable In general people like to bet on what they think of as a positive outlook to a bet such as Manchester United winning as opposed to Manchester City losing, I don’t just mean on win indexes, look at performances and what can be sold because the amount of people buying on spreads out numbers the sellers meaning an unjustified higher spread but do your research as this is not always the case. Myths of always buying on markets There are a lot of myths where if you always buy or sell on a specific market on average you will end up winning and after a lot of research this is not the case, in the very early days of spread betting there was markets which you could manipulate but those days have gone as spread companies soon realise if their spreads are constantly over estimated/ under estimated. To be a successful spread bettor the most important task is to research your bets, markets and news, the fact is if you do more research than the spread betting companies and have a good knowledge of the sport in question you are half the way to a healthy betting account, the other half is luck.
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