Hedging Foreign Exchange Risks
The exchange rate of the Macedonian Denar against the major hard currencies of the world has remained stable in the last few years. Because of the IMF restrictions, the local Narodna (Central) Bank does not print money and there are no physical Denars in the economy and in the local banks. Thus, even if people want to buy Foreign Exchange in the black market, or directly from the banks - they do not have the Denars to do it with. The total amount of Denars (M1, in professional financing lingo) in the economy is around 200,000,000 USD, according to official figures. This translates into 100 USD per capita. Thus, even if each and every citizen of Macedonia were to decide to convert ALL their Denars to Deutsch Marks - they would still be able to buy only 150 DM each, on average. These tiny amounts are not sufficient to raise the rate at which DMs are exchanged for Denars (=the price of DMs in Denars). But will this situation last forever? According to economic theory scarcity raises the price of the scarce commodity. If Denars are rare - their price will remain high in DM terms, i.e. they will not be devalued against the stronger currency. The longer the Central Bank does not print Denars - the longer the exchange rate will be preserved. But a strong currency (the Denar, in this case) is not always a positive thing. The Denar is not strong because Macedonia is rich. The country is in a problematic economic situation. The banking system is perilous and unstable. The reserves of foreign exchange are minimal - less than 30 million USD. The currency is stable because of externally imposed constraints and an artificial manipulation of the money supply. Moreover, a strong currency makes goods produced in Macedonia relatively expensive in outside, export markets. Thus, it is difficult for Macedonian growers and manufacturers to export. When they sell their goods in Germany, they get DM for them and when they convert these receipts into Denars - they get less then they should have if the Denar reflected the true relative strengths of the two economies: the German one and the Macedonian one. They pay expenses (e.g.: salaries to their workers, rent, utilities) in Denars. These expenses grow all the time as true inflation grows (as opposed to the official rate of inflation which is suspiciously low) - but they keep getting the same amount of Denars for their produce and products when they convert the DMs which they got for them. On the other hand, imports to Macedonia become relatively cheaper: it takes less Denars to buy goods in DM in Germany, for instance. Thus, the end result is a growing preference for imports and a decline in exports. In the long term, this increases unemployment. Export is the biggest driving force in creating jobs in modern economies. In its absence, economies stagnate and dwindle and people lose their jobs. But an unrealistic exchange rate has at least two additional adverse effects: One - as a rule, various sectors of the economy borrow money to survive and to expand. If they expect the local currency to be devalued - they will refrain from taking long term credits denominated in hard currencies. They will prefer credits in local currency or short term credits in hard currencies. They will be afraid of a sudden, massive devaluation (such as the one which happened in Mexico overnight). Their lenders will also be afraid to lend them money, because these lenders cannot be sure that the borrowers will have the necessary additional Denars to pay back the credits in case of such a devaluation. Naturally, a devaluation increases the amounts of Denars needed to pay back a loan in foreign currency. This is bad from both the macro-economic vantage point (that of the economy as a whole) - and from the micro-economic point of view (that of the single firm). From the micro-economic point of view short term credits have to be returned long before the businesses which borrowed them have matured to the point of being able to pay them back. These short term obligations burden them, alter their financial statements for the worse and sometimes put their very viability at risk. From the macro-economic point of view, it is always better to have longer debt maturities with less to pay every year. The longer the credits a country (single firms are part of a country) has to pay back - the better its credit standing with the financial community. Another aspect: foreign credits are a competition to credits provided by the local banking system. If firms and individuals do not take credits from the outside because they fear a devaluation - they help to create a monopoly of the local banks. Monopolies have a way of fixing the highest possible prices (=interest rates) for their merchandise (=the money they lend). Access to foreign credits reduces domestic interest rates through competition with the local credit providers (=banks). It would be easy to conclude, therefore, that it is an important interest of a country to be open to foreign financial markets and to provide its firms and citizens with access to sources of foreign credits. One important way of encouraging people (and firms are made of people) to do things - is to allay their fears. If people fear devaluation - a responsible government can never promise not to devalue its currency. Devaluation is a very important policy tool. But the government can INSURE against a devaluation. In many countries of the West, one can buy and sell insurance contracts called forwards. They promise the buyer a given rate of exchange in a given date. But many countries do not have access to these highly sophisticated markets. Not all the currencies can be insured in these markets. The Macedonian Denar, for instance, is not freely convertible, because it is not liquid: there are not enough Denars to respond to the needs of a free marketplace. So, it cannot be insured using these contracts. These less privileged countries establish special agencies which provide (mainly export) firms with insurance against changes in the exchange rates in a prescribed period of time. Let us examine an example: The firm MAK buys combines and tractors from Germany. It has to pay in DMs. An international development bank offered to MAK a loan to be paid back in 7 years time in DM. Today, MAK would be so afraid of devaluation, that it would rather pay the supplier of the equipment as soon as it has cash. This creates cash flow problems at MAK: salaries are not paid on time, raw materials cannot be bought, production stops, MAK loses its traditional markets - and all in order to avoid the risks of devaluation. But - what if the right government agency existed? If governmental insurance against devaluation existed - MAK would surely take the 7 year loan. It would take, let's say, 10 million DM. MAK would apply to the governmental agency with its business. It would pay the government agency a yearly insurance fee of 2.5% of the remaining balances of the loan (as it is amortized and reduced with each monthly payment). This would be considered a proper financing expenditure and the firm will be allowed to deduct it from its taxable income. The government will provide MAK with an insurance policy. An exchange rate (let us say, 30 Denars to the DM) will be stated in the policy. If - at the time that MAK had to make a payment - the rate has gone above 30 Denars to the DM - the government will pay the difference to MAK in DM. This will enable MAK to meet its obligations to its creditors. MAK will be able to cancel this insurance at any time. If, for instance, it suddenly signs a major contract with a German buyer of its products - it will have income in DM which it will be able to use to pay the loan back. Then, the government insurance will no longer be needed. This very simple government assistance will have the following effects: - It will encourage firms to obtain foreign credits.
- It will create competition to the local banks, reduce interest rates and encourage a wider and better range of services offered to the public.
- It will encourage foreign financial institutions to give loans to local firms once the risk of re-payment problems due to a devaluation is minimised.
- It will place Macedonia in the ranks of the more developed and export oriented countries of the world.
- It will facilitate activities with longer term credits (such as modernization of plants for which longer terms of payments are required).
As time goes by, the private sector may step in and supply its own insurance against devaluation . Insurance firms the world over do it - why not in Macedonia which needs it more than many other countries? About The Author Sam Vaknin is the author of "Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited" and "After the Rain - How the West Lost the East". He is a columnist in "Central Europe Review", United Press International (UPI) and ebookweb.org and the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in The Open Directory, Suite101 and searcheurope.com. Until recently, he served as the Economic Advisor to the Government of Macedonia. His web site: http://samvak.tripod.com |
Other Forex Trading Articles
Dental Veneers Help to Bring Back Smiles Interest in cosmetic dentistry has soared over the past decade. More people are aware of the options available to them, and an increasing number of dentists offer cosmetic services. We're excited to be able to help our patients achieve a smile to be proud of and give them a boost in their self-confidence. interested in reading about one of the o ...Trading Logic – The Key to Making Huge Profits Fast If you trade any financial market, you will be aware that the majority of investors simply don’t make money. It’s not because they lack trading ability – investors don’t make money because they don’t understand trading logic.A focus on trading logic is essential for any trader who seeks to make money. Forget, opinions and emotions, and fo ...Currency Trading Seminars A seminar is a workshop conducted with an intention of teaching the audience about a subject. Currency trading seminars are basically helps advise the traders or potential traders about the subject. Seminars could address any issue that affects the market.The forex market is an attractive short-term trading option and, because of its low ...Day Trading for a Living – How Lucrative is It Have you ever thought about becoming a day trader? Is day trading for a living a lucrative field? What about the risk that is associated with day trading?If you are at all interested in becoming a day trader and day trading for a living, then read on. There is a lot of information out there for day trading. Everybody has their own for ...Fibonacci Numbers and the Golden Ratio - 3 Tips for Greater Trading Profits In this report, we will look at the history and background of Fibonacci numbers and The Golden Ratio. We will then outline three specific money management tips that can help increase your profit potential.Support and resistance levels are an important consideration for most traders to help identify entry and exit points when trading. Fibo ...Turning Points To the best of my knowledge, no one has ever figured out a truly accurate way to figure out future turning points. As far as I know, it has never been done. I don't believe that it will ever be done.I have encountered traders who have told me that so-and-so does it, but I have never seen the proof. Nevertheless, I’m willing to listen. I u ...Understanding Currency Trading Dynamics Most books and courses on the subject of currency trading say that it is normal for beginners to lose money at first. Some even go as far as to say that it is normal to have a losing streak that lasts several months! This philosophy stems from the rationale that after losing significant amount of money, you will have more experience and knowled ...Pivot Point Prophet Pivot points have been used by floor traders for years, they are a commonly used indicator of support and resistance areas. A few years back I began to experiment with pivot points. After I got comfortable with them, I began to really like trading with them as an additional indicator.Now pivot points are not your run of the mill indicator ...The Best Time to Day Trade the Forex Market The three major forex trading ‘sessions’ are as follows (all in Eastern Standard Time):1. New York open 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM 2. Japanese/Australian open 7:00 PM to 3:00 AM 3. London open 3:00 AM to 11:00 AM** Often, the best times to trade is at the beginning 3-5 hours of the above mentioned opening times, because the maj ...Basic Forex Strategies Explained When it comes to successful Forex trading, there are two basic strategies used by the majority of traders: fundamental analysis and technical analysis.Fundamental AnalysisIn fundamental analysis, Forex traders look for causes that might trigger market fluctuations. These may include political activities, financial ...What Is Futures Trading? Futures trading is the practice of trading commodities. You may have heard stories about people getting rich with futures trading, but as with all types of investments, there is a risk involved. If you do it incorrectly you can end up thousands of dollars poorer, however done correctly, futures trading can be very lucrative and you could find yo ...Currency Options - 3 Secrets Of Options Trading For Huge Gains! Many traders love the idea of currency options, they have unlimited gains and limited risk – sounds great in theory, but in practice 90% expire worthless!This article is all about how the pros use currency options to generate big consistent gains and how the losing majority don’t understand the odds of success.This article will giv ...Good to Know Stock Trading Information Stock trading is a complex process that may be quite confusing and deceitful to a new trader. Therefore, if you plan to start investing your money in shares, you should first choose a stock trading strategy that is most suitable for yourself.The major difference between stock trading strategies is based on timeframe. It means that an acti ...Your Guide to Learning a Forex Trading System There are a great number of people in America that are interested in investing in order to make a tidy profit. There are many ways to invest and many ways to make profits by investing. One method that has been gaining in popularity is that of the Forex trading system. If you are unsure of what this is, let me explain. Forex stands for foreig ...Seven Deadly Trading Mistakes - Part One By studying at the most frequent reasons for failure, we can avoid making the same mistakes as the crowd, and thus turn these negative points into positives. In this series of articles, I will be looking at the seven most common mistakes I see made by traders.Mistake Number One - Switching Strategiesor "The Hunt For The Holy Grail" ...Online Currency Trading – Why It's Harder Today than Ever Before There are many who believe that the markets today, require the same skills as 30 years ago - but today’s markets are actually much harder to trade.It may surprise you, but markets have changed and are now harder to trade - but if you know why, you can increase your profits dramatically.If you don’t already understand why online cur ...Commodity Trading Systems The modern commodity markets have their roots in trading of agricultural products. While wheat and corn, cattle and pigs, were widely traded using standard instruments in the 19th century in the United States, other basic foodstuffs such as soybeans were only added recently in most markets. For a commodity market to be established, there must be ...Online Forex Trading - Beginners Guide When it comes to forex trading, understanding the terminology and the forex trading strategies before you begin is vital. There are many web based companies that provide online forex trading tutorials that revolve around real time forex trading. Using a forex tutorial will give you the beginner knowledge you need to take part in trading forex. ...Commodity Day Trading Commodity day trading most commonly refers to the practice of buying and selling stocks during the day. By the end of the day, there has been no net change in position. For every share of stock bought, an equivalent share is sold. A gain or loss is made on the difference between the purchase and sales prices.Studies have shown that the mo ...What Type Of Indicators Should You Use For Trading Are those simple indicators like MACD or ADX useful for trading?Yes sure they are! MACD is the most reliable indicator ever seen! Is this right? Of COURSE IT’S NOT!!I’ve seen lot of forex articles on the net talking about the strength of these indicators like they were the key of success to the forex & st ...
| 