Energies Update – Bank Profit or Wait for New Highs?
If you have followed these energy updates over the last few days you will have seen our analysis that got us in at the bottom of the channel and has produced great gains. Unleaded gas has moved to the top of the channel and crude has also moved higher at a slower rate. The question now in unleaded gas is: Are we set for new highs or is a pullback on the cards? The factor under pinning prices is the geo political situation with Iran who increased the stakes with veiled threats to use oil as a weapon against intervention in its nuclear program. Keep in mind, these markets are driven by emotion at this moment and it’s hard to call which way they will go. So let’s take a detached view and look at the charts Unleaded Gas Has led the advance in energies and prices are testing the top of the recent channel, but failed to breakout to new highs. A break above resistance will see another leg up. At present stochastic support and momentum is still to the upside. We would use these as profit taking signal if they cross tomorrow with bearish divergence and bank the profit. Buy again on clear break of the highs. This means there will be profit in the bank, near the highs and buying on the breakout would get positions back in the market. Alternatively, traders can target a dip to the mid Bollinger band and wait for prices to find support. These markets remain in a firm up trend and don’t look to be falling to far so to keep your focus on the trend which remains firmly up. Crude Oil Again, use stochastic indicator to take profit or a close below the mid Bollinger band. Natural Gas We are extremely bullish of this market but the recent buy recommendation was not filled as prices have plunged and are new nearby lows. We will look for a bottom to form and use stochastic momentum to get in again. For now though all trends are down so don’t pick a bottom – wait. Longer term this looks like it could become a great bull market but for now were wrong and need to wait for prices to support our view. Finally Energies are extremely volatile and crude and unleaded are driven by trader psychology the strategy above should enable traders to bank profit if necessary and also get another bite if prices breakout to the upside or dip to nearby support. The recommendations in unleaded gas and crude were in right at the bottom of the channel and these have produced great gains. The above should allow you to get some profit regardless of where the markets go and opportunities to get in again if you exit or are waiting on the sidelines.
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