College Football Week #4: ACC vs.SEC
ACC vs. SEC. Oh, the images it evokes. Bowl games where Alabama's mighty defense stands up to Clemson; intersectional dream games like Miami getting skunked by LSU in last year's Peach Bowl; intense rivalries like Florida against Florida State. Now that the ACC has consolidated with teams like Miami and FSU and Boston College, and now that the SEC is perhaps the predominant conference in America, surely any game that involves schools from these two multi-billion-dollar entities will set the nation's ears buzzing. Um, maybe not. This weekend, Wake Forest travels to Mississippi. Yeah, that's right. They still let these teams show up in the league standings every year. Usually at the bottom, but never mind. These schools kind of suck. Every once in a while, a Manning sibling will alight on Oxford, Mississippi, and make the Rebels decent for a year or two. But otherwise? Put these teams together, and they're a combined 9-24 in their respective conferences over the last two seasons. Ole Miss fired David Cutcliffe for post-Eli-Manning ineptitude, and second-year coach Ed Orgeron went 3-8 in his first season at the helm. Wake's Jim Grobe notched 6-5 and 7-6 seasons in his first two years (2001 and 2002), and even took the Deacs to a bowl game in '02 (granted, it was the Seattle Bowl), but since then has failed to post a winning record. Anyway, they play in Oxford this weekend, and I like this game from a wagering perspective. I'll get to the specific players and situations I like in a moment, but the trends are off-the-charts good for this game. Wake Forest is 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven as an underdog. They're also 7-0 ATS in their last seven when they've been an underdog by three points or fewer, which they are this week. On the Mississippi side, the Rebs are 0-4 ATS in their last four as a favorite, 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight as a favorite of three points or fewer, 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall, and 0-6 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss. In short: the bettors evidently either value Ole Miss's name recognition (a Manning will do that), or the fact that they belong to the SEC, more than they should, and they diss the fact that Wake is in a tough conference, too, and that the Deacs tend to play extremely close games against favored opponents. Now to the specifics. Ole Miss is just godawful defensively. They've played three games (Memphs, at Missouri and at Kentucky), and have allowed 152 yards per game on the ground (86th in the nation) and 256 yards per game via the air (105th nationally). While I wouldn't exactly characterize Wake Forest as a "great offense," they're better than they've shown this year. Starting QB Ben Mauk is out for the year with a broken arm, but freshman Riley Skinner has proven he can be a fine caretaker for what should be a very good rushing attack, behind junior Micah Andrews. The Demon Deacons want to run and run and run, and Ole Miss knows that. But I wonder if they can do anything to stop it. Where this matchup tilts further in Wake's direction is the fact that what the Rebels want to do is run. They've averaged 172 yards per game on the ground (35th nationally), behind RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis and QB Brent Schaeffer, a University of Tennessee transfer who's clearly a better runner than he is a thrower. However, Wake Forest has proven that its rush defense, especially its linebackers, are much improved in '06. The excellent University of Connecticut ground game couldn't manage more than three yards per carry against Wake last week (in Storrs), and for the season, the Deacons have allowed 2.4 yards per carry, which is tied for 18th in the country. I mean, they're not exactly Michigan or Texas in terms of rush defense, and I certainly wouldn't expect that Ole Miss will be completely stumped playing at home (especially after two straight embarrassing defeats on the road). But I think it's a great matchup, pitting the strength of the Wake defense against the strength of the Rebel offense. Plus, in every other respect, Wake should have a pretty big advantage. Is this an absolute no-brainer? Well, no. Wake isn't a great team, and when they hit the meat of their ACC schedule, they're going to get pounded into little bitty Tim Duncan replicas. And you never feel great taking a road dog in college football, because you figure that road dogs are road dogs for a reason. Nevertheless, as I said at the beginning, I like the way this one shakes out. I'm taking Wake Forest (+3) at Mississippi. And I guess we'll save the ACC vs. SEC montage for this winter's bowl season. Last Week: Hey, a win's a win's a win, right? USC saved a whole lotta ass at the end of a pretty lackluster game against Nebraska, winning 28-10 with a 17.5-point spread. Eek. The early-game (and grisly) dislocated-ankle-and-broken-fibula injury to burly Ryan Powdrell certainly didn't help matters, and a supreme lack of clutchness by the Trojans through the first half made things scary. But in the end, it all worked out. Love those half-point covers. For the season, then, we're 2-1 against the spread. Hey, 2-1 smells a lot better than 0-1, right? Christopher Harris is a featured writer for the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com |
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