Premiership Title Race - Liverpool Fall at First Hurdle
At the start of the 2006/2007 Premiership season many pundits predicted that the Premiership title race would be between four teams: Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal. Now the league is at the quarter mark has one of the contenders already fallen at the first hurdle? During the summer Liverpool assembled one of their strongest squads in a long time. They purchased Dutch striker Dirk Kuyt (from Feyenoord) and Craig Bellamy (from Blackburn) to complement Peter Crouch and Robbie Fowler. In midfield Mark Gonzalez returned back from loan to compete with Harry kewell on the left wing and Jermaine Pennant arrived from Liverpool to add more competition on the flanks. Benitez also strengthened his defence with the capture of Gabriel Paletta and Fábio Aurélio. On paper Liverpool have a very strong squad which can compete with the likes of Chelsea, Mancheter United and Arsenal for the Premiership title. Things have not gone according to plan for Liverpool and they now find themselves 11 points off the pace. So what has gone wrong with Rafa's Liverpool so earliy in the season? You can not blame injuries or lack of strength-in-depth for Liverpool's faltering as mentioned above they have only strengthened their squad this summer and have no major injury concerns. There are two main factors which have contributed to Liverpool falling at the first hurdle of the Premiership race. In my opinion these two factors are Liverpool's poor form away from Anfield and Rafa's constent need to rotate his squad. Liverpool's recent form at Anfield has reminded many pundits that the stadium used to be a fortress. That is evident this season as Liverpool remain unbeaten at home with wins over West Ham (2-1), Newcastle (2-0) and Spurs (3-0) and one draw against Blackburn (1-1). Why can Liverpool not transfer this form away from Anfield? Liverpool have one of the worst away records this season as they have only picked up one point and that was during a 1-1 draw on the opening day against Sheff Utd. That result has been followed with convincing defeats at the hands of Everton (3-0), Chelsea (1-0), Bolton (2-0) and Man Utd (2-0). The statistics away from home look very worrying for manager Rafa Benitez as they have only managed to score one goal and that was on the opening day against newly promoted Sheff Utd. Some of the same problems from last season seem to exist despite Rafa assembling an expensive squad. Pundits last season suggested Liverpool did not challenge as much as they should have done as they did not have an out-and-out goal scorer. Que the arrival of Dirk Kuyt who has scored 71 goals in his last three Eredivise seasons, making him one of Europe's most prolific strikers. Kuyt will struggle to continue his amazing scoring record due to Liverpools second factor - Rafa's rotation system. Any player at any football level needs a good run in the team to produce his best form and become consistent. It is a well know fact that a settled starting XI is more productive then one which is changing each week. You only need to look at the success over the past decade of Manchester United to see this and now Chelsea are applying the same logic. So why does Rafa Benitez decide to change his starting XI each week? Is it due to the fact he wants to keep his squad happy or does he want to keep his player fresh by giving them a break? I think those two questions only play a minor part in the answer. In my opinion the real answer is that Rafa does not know his strongest starting XI. If you ask any Liverpool fan or neutral for that matter they would be able to rattle off similar starting XI's. Rafa Benitez needs a settled starting XI that plays with each other week in week out. That way he will be able to get the best out of his players as they will start to develop an undestading of each other. That is the only way you will see Dirk Kuyt hit 20 plus goals a season and see Liverpool's form away from Anfield pick-up. Is it two late for Rafa to address these two factors though? Liverpool are already a 11 points behind Chelsea and Manchester United and seem to have a massive hurdle to climb. I can see Liverpool picking up slightly but unless Rafa's addresses his squad rotation system and Liverpool's away form then they will not be entering the title race. In my opinion Arsenal should win their game in hand leaving them only two points behind Manchester United and Chelsea. That means it will only be a three horse race this season as Liverpool seem to have fallen at the first hurlde at the quarter mark. Only a brave Liverpool fan or gambler would be willing to take the odds of 100/1 for Liverpool to claim their first title since 1990.
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