The Dish: When 2-6 Is Favored To Beat 6-2
Strange, strange, strange line for the Steelers/Saints game at the Big Ketchup this weekend. New Orleans is 6-2, with an exciting aerial attack, visiting Pittsburgh, who's 2-6, and just gave up three touchdown passes to Jake Plummer. The Saints have the fourth-best passing offense in the game; the Steelers have allowed big days by Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Michael Vick and Plummer. And the Steelers are favored by 4.5? Well, either the Wise Guys know something the rest of us don't, or the AFC is about 7,000 times better than the NFC. The Saints got cremated at home by Baltimore a couple weeks back, and squeaked past Cleveland in their only other game against an AFC team. The Steelers lost 41-38 at Atlanta (a team, granted, that the Saints pulverized) in a game where they lost their starting quarterback to a concussion. The combined record of the teams New Orleans has beaten is 18-30 (Cleveland, Green Bay, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay twice). The combined record of the teams that defending-champ Pittsburgh has lost to is 28-20 (Jacksonville, Cincinnati, San Diego, Atlanta, Oakland and Denver). Would the six best AFC teams all beat anyone the NFC could muster in a Super Bowl? Could be. Miami crushing Chicago at Solider Field last weekend certainly didn't make the NFC look good. But that huge upset came in a game where the Bears were double-digit favorites. This Saints/Steelers line is like a "pre-upset." Any time a 2-6 team topples a 6-2 team, no matter where the game is played, that's supposed to be a pretty big surprise, right? Evidently not. Like a lot of people, I was skeptical about Drew Brees's shoulder, about the New Orleans defense, about Joe Horn's health and Sean Payton's first season as a head coach. I still don't think they're an elite team, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them get knocked off in the first round of the playoffs. But I do think they'll be in the playoffs, which is more than I can say for Pittsburgh. Brees has made all the throws, WR Marques Colston is the Rookie of the Year to this point, and the defense has made enough plays in most games to keep the team close. If Pittsburgh really does topple New Orleans this weekend, there will be no more ringing condemnation of the NFC's quality, and that includes the Bears' disappointing performance last week. The Colts are the only defeated team in football. They're also on pace right now to be a historically bad run defense. They've given up the second-highest yards-per-carry to opposing running backs since 1960. Can this team win a championship? BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.ws : Yes, the Colts are undefeated and coming off big wins over Denver and New England the last two weeks, but this team can’t stop the run, and doesn’t have a consistent enough running game to worry teams come January. This has many believing that Indianapolis will be forced to win games in their vintage style, which is not enough to convince bookmakers that this season will end any better than in recent years. How has the action been for Sunday night games, compared to Monday night games this year, and what the "old" Monday night games on ABC used to do? Has Sunday night really taken over as "Football Night in America" in the gaming community? BDB, BoDog.ws : Sunday Night match-ups have been far more appealing than Monday night’s, but the action is, and will likely always be, significantly greater for Monday Night Football games. The reason for this is simple: Sunday night games have to compete against all the early NFL games and usually a full NBA card for bettors’ money, while Monday night games dominate what people can bet on. It's a mighty big if, but if Rutgers somehow upsets Louisville this week, and winds up going undefeated, do you think they'll play the Ohio State/Michigan winner for the national championship? BDB, BoDog.ws : We think that if a team comes out undefeated from a major conference, and there's no other undefeated team that can match their record, they should play for the National Championship. Is this fair? No; but this is not a flawless system where the two best teams play at the end. There are a couple of one-loss teams who can match up better vs. the winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game than Rutgers. The Florida Gators are the consensus pick to repeat as NCAA hoops champions. What do you think about the likelihood of that? If there's one team to unseat Florida, who would it be? BDB, BoDog.com ">BoDog.ws: Although it's unlikely that they'll repeat as NCAA basketball champions, the Gators will be better than they were during last year's regular season and earn a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Final Four is incredibly tough to win and they face long odds to repeat last March’s incredible run. It's possible, but only two preseason #1 ranked teams have won the NCAA Tournament in the last 10 years: UConn in 2004 and Kentucky in 1996. If any team can unseat them and cut down the nets at the end of the Tournament, Kansas looks like they present the greatest threat; the Jayhawks are loaded with talent everywhere and return all five starters from a team that won 15 of its final 17 games and captured the Big 12 regular-season and tournament titles. Christopher Harris is a featured writer for the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com |
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