Testing Your Baccarat and Craps System
Any Baccarat or Craps System must consist of two parts: a bet selection method and a money management system. Bet selection is defined as the process of selecting the winning decision (player or banker) in baccarat or (pass or don’t pass) in craps. There are many methods favored by seasoned players. Some like to follow the shoe in baccarat or the roll in craps. By this we mean, the player bets the same as the preceeding decision. Another favorite method of picking which side to bet on is the decision before last. Pattern recognition entriques many players as they search for compelling patterns. Streak play has sponded many systems in the baccarat game. Baccarat seems to hold out the most hope to the mathematically inclined. Since the game is played out of a shoe that is generally not reshuffled until a baccarat game has been concluded. The math types declare there is dependency in the baccarat game. Dependency means as the first half of the baccarat shoe is played it necessary determines the composition of the second half of the baccarat shoe. Therefore, we should be able to develop some edge over the house in the second part of the shoe since we already know which cards have been played in the first half of the shoe (of course we would have to keep track somehow to know this). Card counting pioneered and used successfully in blackjack was attemped in baccarat. The result was slightly positive but very disappointing as the player advantage was very very slight. My advise on baccarat card counting; don’t waste your time, it won’t work. Other methods of extracting the “dependency” from the baccarat game have been explored. Dr. S.H. Johnson performed extensive computer research using large volumes of live baccarat data. He studied thousands of reoccuring patterns in relation to the dominence of the shoe (banker or player) at the time the pattern occurred. He was able to extract an advantage only slightly less than created by card counting in blackjack. Dr. Johnson reports the practical limitation of this baccarat strategy is the very infrequent occurence of betting opportunies. This strained the casino’s patience when he set out two thirds of a shoe before placing his advantaged play. The play required very large bets and a large bankroll to generate a modest profit. The good doctor concluded the strategy was more of a moral victory that a practical solution to taking the advantage in the baccarat game. Some players take a unique approach based on the continuity of numbers in a negative expectation game like the baccarat game or craps game. The continuity of numbers concept behind this approach proves out every time we analyze the data on the main frame computer. This is not to say the concept will give you the infallible gambling system. Here is the basic idea. Let’s say we went to the casino with a group of researchers and we recorded every roll of the dice at the craps table 24 hours per day 7 days a week for 6 months. That would amount to thousands of rolls of the dice. Just for discussion, let’s say 6 months of continuous recording represents 650,000 rolls or decisions. Now, let’s say a individual researcher lives to be 102 years old and for 80 years of his life he went to the casino every day of his life. Each day he recorded 10 minutes of craps rolls at the craps table (not even at the same table everyday!). Let’s say for our little discussion, that the 80 years of 10 minutes a day produced the amount of decisions, the same 650,000 as the group of 24/7 researchers did in 6 months. Let us take both sets of data and enter into our computer. The computer will analyse the data against the mathematical model of the game. We’ll analyze the pattern distribution, the occurrence of numbers and all of the percentages. We’ll calculate the casino’s advantage over the player (i.e. – pass line 1.42%, don’t pass 1.40%, etc.). The computer churns for a few minutes and spits out the two reports; Report 1- the “24/7 for 6 months data” and Report 2- the “10 minute per day for 80 years data”. What do you think the differnce will be? NOTHING!! That’s right, the stats and numbers will be the same. Well, what can we learn from this? As players we play only one big craps game and one big baccarat game (if those are your games) in our life. You form a continuity of numbers that over the lifetime of your play will always attempt to conform to the morphology of the game or the mathematical distribution. At any given time various aspects (patterns and numbers) will be on a deviation from their normal mathematical distribution in the game. For example, let us say in our lifetime game we have played 1,000,000 hands of baccarat. We know because we recorded everyone of those suckers on scorecards and entered them into our computer after every play session. [the pros call this procedure “cataloging their game”] Every night after entering his data, the player cranks up his trusty computer analysis program. A report is derived; he finds out for example, that patterns of seven bank decisions in row are 6 standard deviations behind in occurance in “his game”. The pro player has a coveted strategy for playing the deviations in his game. He knows the deviation IS going to come back to equipartition eventually. IT ALWAYS DOES, eventually! Don’t run to the casino yet. The big question is how long absent will the pattern remain before starting to come back into the normal distribution model of the game? NO, I am not going to give you the answer. Something to think about, huh? It’s interesting, the player does not consider a game to be one shoe of baccarat or two hours of craps play but the entire continuity of all the decisions he has played. FACT: This is HIS game; the only game he can ever play. One could say, this shots the heck out of the idea we often hear… “my system may not win over the long haul but I am only going to play a couple hours a day so that doesn’t matter”. In these negative expectation casino games you cannot escape the continuity of numbers over an ever increasing exposure to the game. Billion dollar casinos are built every year on the impregnable morphology of these negative expectation games (reserving the dependency argument in baccarat and that strategy you may develop!) We suggest that you initiate your baccarat or craps system design and testing with a concentration on your bet selection methodology. By that I mean, as you test your strategy, use a flat bet or neutral money management. A flat bet means the bet is the same amount on every hand of baccarat or on every roll of the dice. You cannot beat a negative expectation game with money management. Over the long haul your bet selection must produce more winning hands or rolls than losers. When the player accomplishes this, we say he has a positive expectation or a player advantage over the casino. When the player has the advantage almost any type of money management will work. However, let’s repeat this again, if there is no player advantage on the bet selection, No money management system, no matter how clever it is will turn a negative expectation into a postive expectation. Can we still play even though we don’t have a positive advantage? YES! It’s called gambling. When you have a player advantage it really isn’t gambling is it? Most recreational players play without a player advantage. The system you play and how you manage your money are critical if you are to realize some nice winning sessions and not lose all your money everytime you go to the casino. Actually you could be a lifetime winner without a player advantage if you went to the casino table, got on an incredible streak of luck (it does happen) pressed (progressed) your bets to the max. When you’re $35K ahead you quit and never gamble again! Congratulations you just kicked the casino’s butt! This is not going happen with most of us. We will be back! We better develop a system that is either advantaged or close to it and have a money manage system that limits our exposure to only a small percentage of our bankroll. Most professional gambler’s use a percentage money management system. These systems are based on extreme discipline and constant monitoring of one’s bankroll. Only a predetermined percentage of the every changing bankroll is bet. Learn the game your play, learn the system you play and then learn discipline, then learn discipline, then learn discipline ..yeah it’s that important. If you can’t learn to control your emotions you will self destruct at the gambling table. If you can't control your impulses and emotion, don’t waste your time with gambling. You’re embarking on a great challenge. Like anything else worth doing, you must pay your dues. Then and only then can you become one of the few real winners! Enjoy! Erick St. Germain is an author, consult, and gambling system developer located in Plano, TX. Erick's writings have been featured in different magazines, books, and forums. Check out more tips at www.zumma.com |
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