GFS Marketplace 400: Silly Season Gets Sillier
The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round, round and round.... As the third Chase for the Championship in NASCAR grows nigh, as Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. try to hold off Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch and Greg Biffle, another battle has exploded. The Battle For Silliness. I wrote an article a few weeks back on a Silly Season that already included Brian Vickers getting fired from Hendrick Motorsports and helping start a new Toyota Red Bull Racing team; Casey Mears leaving Ganassi for Vickers's old #25 with Hendrick; Todd Kluever taking over for Mark Martin in the #6 at Roush; Dale Jarrett leaving the iconic #88 for Michael Waltrip's Toyota team; and Juan Pablo Montoya jumping from F-1 to Ganassi's #42. But that was before the latest explosion on the Smokeless Set. While Kahne has threatened the top 10 all season, his teammate at Evernham, Jeremy Mayfield, has been truly dreadful; he currently sits 34th in points, and amazingly hasn't posted a single top-10 finish through all of 2006 (this from a guy who squeaked into the Chase each of the last two seasons). The axe finally fell at Evernham this week, as the increasingly-whiny Mayfield was relieved of his duties. Amazingly, the guy who'll replace him is Elliott Sadler, another guy who's made a Chase, and who was suffering through a mediocre year at a suddenly-mediocre team: Robert Yates Racing. Sadler was 20th in points, had one top-five and five top-10 finishes this year, and was part of a Yates organization that has fallen apart at the seams. Jarrett is gone in November, and no replacement has been named (could Ward Burton really be headed back to Cup driving?), general manager Eddie D'Hondt was fired after being blamed for allowing Sadler to go, and crew chiefs Tommy Baldwin (Sadler's chief) and Slugger Labbe (Jarrett's) were released. It's been a brutal year in general for all Ford teams, considering Fords have won only three events all season (they'd won nine at this point in '05), and Yates certainly bears the brunt of this. This weekend, David Gilliland takes over for Sadler in the #38, Jarrett continues his lame-duck run in the #88, and Sadler takes over the #19, while Mayfield looks on from the sideline. Considering Sadler, Mayfield and Jarrett are three of the mega-stars in this sport, this is amazing. (Imagine Gary Sheffield and Manny Ramirez getting traded in a three-team swap, and Vladimir Guerrero being forced to sit for the rest of the season as a result.) As we head into Michigan for our second trip to the Irish Hills this weekend, a track where the Fords have traditionally dominated, all you can really say is: Wow. And let's all resolve not to bet on any of these drivers for the rest of the year, shall we? Last Week: Tony Stewart couldn't quite hold off Kevin Harvick at Watkins Glen, so I barely missed on a straight-up win (albeit one at very slender odds). However, Junior did top Mears, so I won a -180 head-to-head bet, which gave me the tiniest winning week I've ever had: I finished up .06 units. Woo-hoo! We're rich! Anyway, for the season, I'm hanging tough at a profit of 14.56 units, which is much, much better than a sharp stick in the eye. We've posted winning weeks in 14 out of 21 tries, too. So let's keep it going. Take Carl Edwards (+900), 1/6th unit. Edwards probably had the best car here on Father's Day weekend, but he never quite got the chance to show it. It was a rainy June day, and Kasey Kahne (+450) was able to get out of his pits on what would turn out to be the race's final stop just a split-second faster than Edwards, whereupon the heavens opened. I don't discount how good Kahne has been on the downforce tracks this year, but I think he's slightly better suited to the higher-banked 1.5-milers in Charlotte, Atlanta and Texas (where, not coincidentally, he's swept so far in '06). Edwards, meanwhile, seems to like those two-milers a ton: his average career finish at Michigan is 5.25, and he's come 2nd, 4th and 5th the last three events here. He's also great at Michigan's sister track in Fontana, where he's come 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th the last four times out there. His year has sucked, but he's had good cars at Pocono and Indy lately. I think he can break through here. Take Greg Biffle (+600), 1/6th unit. Hey, didn't I just say the Fords have been kind of crap so far in '06? Well, get used to it, because you're about to see a pretty clear pattern in what I expect to happen this weekend. Biffle has won twice at Michigan (in the fall of '04 and spring of '05), and has only failed to post a finish inside the top six once here in his last six tries. The Biff is known for his love of these big sweeping tracks, which suit his style of going hard into the corners and letting his car slide maniacally up toward the wall. He's able to carry as much speed as anyone in the field using this method (which also tended to suit him at the A-C-T tracks last season, though not as much in '06). Plus Biffle is desperate to get closer in the Chase; he currently sits 13th, 180 points in back of Dale Eanrhardt Jr. (+1400). He's still got time to make the top 10, but it has to begin now. Take Matt Kenseth (+900), 1/6th unit. Kenseth won the California race this spring, and probably should've won the Michigan race exactly one year ago, but for some crazy fuel strategy by eventual winner Jeremy Mayfield (who, as I mentioned above, won't be participating this weekend). Kenseth was only 13th here in June, which broke a string of six consecutive top-10 finishes; he also won at this joint way back in the summer of '02. It's clear that I'm making one final stand with the Roush cars this weekend, despite the fact that there's no question that the Dodges, and even to some extent the Chevys (especially when they're driven by Jimmie Johnson (+1000)), have made up most of the gap between them and the Roush downforce cars. I wasn't convinced Kahne was the best man in June, so we'll find out if Roush is ready to make a stand; right now, only Kenseth and Mark Martin (+1600) are securely in the Chase, and getting only two of their five drivers into the postseason would certainly be a major upset for Roush. Note: Please check back for updated odds and a head-to-head selection either late Saturday or early Sunday, depending on when the online books put the odds online. Thanks. Christopher Harris is a featured writer for the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com |
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