Even Higher Uranium Prices Ahead This Summer
Will we see a dramatic spike in uranium prices this summer? Some industry insiders have forecast spikes that could send uranium soaring to between $55 and $100/pound. Most were not expecting this to occur during 2006. However, there are several reasons we believe something could crack wide open in the uranium market over the next 100 days. RUSSIA Let’s take the Russian situation. U.S. utilities have been somewhat lackadaisical about uranium pricing because they’ve been getting Russian uranium on the cheap. Russia’s Rosatom head Sergei Kiriyenko has reportedly told U.S. utilities there will be no HEU-2 deal. Whether this is a ploy to extract a better deal for Russia, or Russia’s announcement it will feed other nuclear-ambitious countries with its uranium is not known. U.S. utilities are now lobbying the U.S. Commerce Department to end the restrictions on importing enriched Russian uranium. They like the pricing, and are now arguing that higher uranium prices are jeopardizing the nuclear renaissance in the United States. Because of rising uranium prices, 85 percent of the utilities, which operate nuclear facilities, have formed AHUG (Ad Hoc Utility Group) to terminate the import restriction. If AHUG accomplished its goal, the loser would be USEC, which is now arguing on America’s “overdependence” of nuclear fuel. USEC depends upon the Russian uranium to fund its future enrichment facility program. In a way, this amounts to corporate welfare. USEC is arguing against unlimited Russian uranium. U.S. utilities are now being fed about 50 percent of their nuclear fuel from decommissioned Russian warheads. Russia is more than a tad upset because the deal they made does not reflect the current spot or long-term price of uranium. Something will likely occur at the G8 Summit in St. Petersburg, Russia on July 14-17. Russia will chair this summit for the first time. Expect fireworks. On the official G8 website, Russian President Putin announced, “Russia, as the presiding country, regards it as its duty to give a fresh impetus to efforts to find solutions to key international problems in energy, education and healthcare.” It should be noted that Russia is now the world’s second largest oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia. Russia is also hoping to reach a deal in joining the World Trade Organization before the summit opens. We believe Russia may exacerbate the current tight supply situation in the uranium markets and cause prices to rise after the summit. On June 9th, Russia’s news service Novosti reported the country would start constructing two nuclear power units per year inside Russia beginning in 2007. Kiriyenko also announced Russia would ramp up to four or five nuclear reactors for 2009-2010. President Putin plans to build an international full-service nuclear fuel center in Russia to provide enriched uranium for the growing number of countries wanting nuclear energy programs. It would be hardly likely Russia would provide additional uranium to U.S. utilities in that context. TRADE TECH LLC What about going into Russia’s G8 Summit? It appears uranium trading through June could continue to show a very tight supply situation, where sellers continue to set pricing. A recent posting on the Trade Tech LLC website announced the following: A number of buyers concluded transactions during May, which significantly reduced outstanding demand. The impasse between buyers and sellers ended this past month, with buyers apparently reconciling their expectations with recent price increases and current offers. Sellers moved increasingly toward market-related pricing terms for spot delivery, and buyers showed a renewed willingness to accept these offers. Exceptionally strong long-term demand continues to exert upward pressure on the spot uranium price as each pound held by sellers is considered more valuable with every new buyer that enters the market. At least one, and possibly two, uranium auctions are expected in June. Buyers are expected to compete aggressively for this material and TradeTech expects uranium prices to continue their upward climb in June. Aggressively competing for tight uranium supplies lends credence to a possible rise through the $50/pound level before the G8 Summit ends. ANOTHER BAD HURRICANE SEASON Unusually bad weather drives up energy prices. This summer’s hurricane season may be the equivalent to this past winter’s European gas shortages, which came courtesy of the Ukraine/Russian squabbling and a bad European winter. Many countries began expressing interest in a nuclear energy program after that episode. Another climate event might compel more to head for more nuclear. Over the past two decades, hurricane watchers have learned to pay attention to Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science. While based in hurricane-absent Fort Collins, Colorado, his atmospheric studies have proven Nostradamus-like prescient over the past 22 years. Why are we talking about hurricanes? Hurricane announcements tend to drive up energy futures. The number of hurricane days adds pressure to an already tight energy market. Hurricanes start to show up on an investor’s radar during August and remain there through September. Because of anticipated tight uranium supplies for June utility buying and the anticipation of Russian fireworks in mid July, a fitting climax for a strong surge in uranium pricing might come along with a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast. Last year’s Katrina can serve as a reminder that climate changes can impact energy prices, uranium included. Based upon the weather forecasts, we believe in the high probability of an encore to last year’s energy shortages. While this year’s hurricane season is not expected to match the devastation of 2005, it still highly rates at 195 percent for a Net Tropical Cyclone Activity rating. Last year’s first tropical storm, Arlene, formed on June 9th. This year’s Tropical Storm Alberto formed a year and a day later. Exclude the busiest hurricane season in 154 years of storm-tracking, and this year is expected to rate well above the average hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimated up to a total of 16 storms, as many as ten hurricanes and up to six Category 3 or higher hurricanes. Dr. Gray’s team estimates similar numbers, but places the brunt of the storms’ impact on the eastern United States. Storms mainly cause panic. It is the landfall which causes death and destruction. Using Steering Current Predictors, sea surface temperatures, a 52-year statistical hindcast, North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations and other parameters, Dr. Gray forecast in his recent report, “The odds of a major hurricane making landfall along the East Coast are more than twice the climatological average value this year.” He forecast a 38-percent probability of a major hurricane hitting land along the Gulf Coast this year. The most chilling comparisons made in the “Extended Range Forecast of Hurricane Activity for 2006” were those which went unremarked by the media. Dr. Gray compared Hurricane Season 2006 to hurricane seasons in 1961 and 2004. Hurricane Carla in 1961 was ranked 3rd worst by barometric pressure at landfall of all hurricanes entering the Gulf Coast. The 2004 hurricane season brought Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, which were some of the most devastating U.S. hurricanes recorded. Such scenarios would wreak havoc with already strained energy prices, but would be good for the uranium mining bulls. Gray concluded, “We believe that 2006 will be a very active season in the Atlantic basin.” The more active, the more likely a dramatic spike in uranium pricing. NUCLEAR EXPANSION: A WORLDWIDE PHENOMENON Yuri Sokolov, Department Head of Nuclear Energy for the United Nation’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told reporters this past week, “There is plenty of uranium assuming the industry keeps moving ahead with exploration and new mines.” Sokolov is confident the “identified resources” of 4.7 million metric tons can be mined for less than $60/pound. That’s about 26 percent higher than the current spot price. There was also a warning buried in his speech. He cautioned the major risk to uranium supplies would come from possible delays in moving from discovery to production. Industry insiders understand it can take between 12 and 20 years after a discovery to reach the production stage. U.S. utilities may get more aggressive to secure supplies as this year and next pass by. Their supply deficit for 2008 through 2012 requires a near miracle to match demand requirements. Sokolov also set targets in the IAEA’s annual Red Book. Depending upon how quickly the nuclear industry expands, more uranium will be required. By 2025, if global nuclear capacity increases to 22 percent, utilities will need 80,000 metric tons per year. An increase to 43 percent would require 100,000 metric tons annually. The Red Book forecast new mines, over the next five years, would add about 30,000 metric tons to the supply inventories. This new capacity would fill the current uranium supply shortage, unless of course the industry is hit with delays. More new mines would also need to come online to keep pace with the heralded nuclear renaissance. Only the most cynical industry insiders would disagree the uranium mining sector desperately needs a dramatic surge in production between 2010 and 2020 to match the explosive growth ahead for this sector. SUMMARY Nuclear energy “hot talk” should also get a boost in August and September, after the North American release of James Lovelock’s "The Revenge of Gaia" (Basic Books). The 86-year old scientist has led the charge among the world’s environmentalists to get the greens to go nuclear. The international media has sought out Dr. Lovelock’s opinions. Figure we’ll see the same boost in “pro nuclear” media appearances going into the autumn. As the author appears on numerous talk shows, the polls should swing more heavily into building more nuclear plants. That could add further pressure on utilities to quickly secure inventory. Russia’s desire for a uranium/nuclear monopoly, hurricanes, tight supplies through the summer and the likelihood of yet another energy crisis before Labor Day could spell a significant boost in spot uranium pricing. It would not surprise us should spot uranium trade closer to $60/pound over the next 100 days. Any “shock event” could spike the spot uranium price above that level, and possibly make a run for $100/pound uranium. Such a level would be unsustainable, of course, but it would be an eye-opener and attract renewed interest in the domestic uranium mining sector. The key domestic contenders for adding new mining capacity in the United States appear to be Strathmore Minerals (TSX: STM; Other OTC: STHJF), Uranium Resources (OTC BB: URRE), Energy Metals (TSX: EMC), UR-Energy (TSX: URE.TO), and Uranerz Energy (OTC BB: URNZ). There are others, but we have not followed their developments as closely. Should the Russians absolutely confirm there will be no HEU-2 deal, U.S. utilities will be driven to closely investigate working relationships with domestic uranium development companies for reliable nuclear fuel supplies. Itochu has established a relationship with Uranium Resources (UOTC BB: URRE), and we expect more of these joint ventures to materialize. As for market capitalizations versus pounds-in-the-ground, during the last uranium bull market (in the 1970s), utility companies were buying uranium companies for about $5-6/pound of uranium. Some of our favorite companies, which host historically reliable and NI 43-101 compliant uranium resources over 100 million pounds, would be severely undervalued under a parallel scenario. StockInterview’s "Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market: A Practical Investor’s Guide to Uranium Stocks" debuts its e-Book edition this coming weekend. The number of investors now following developments in the uranium sector has grown exponentially over the past two years. The mad rush for data about uranium companies and industry developments has catapulted this website’s traffic into the top ten percent of all Internet websites. When the print edition arrives in bookstores and libraries, and is offered through book clubs and other allied groups, the demand for uranium and interest in the nuclear fuel cycle should make another leap forward.
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